Last week's news coverage was heavy on the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) bills in both Indiana and Arkansas. The reactions of the potential GOP presidential candidates were telling. Of them all, Ted Cruz showed the most conviction, even more so than the governors of the states proposing these laws.
If one listens to all the talking heads, it was a big misstep by Indiana Gov. Mike Pence. Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson reacted a little better, according to pundits. After Walmart suggested that he veto the bill, he likely saw the turmoil that Pence went through and decided he'd better send the bill back to the legislature for major adjustment. Both bills were modified to meet a corporate consensus of somewhat less discrimination and signed by the respective governors.
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During all the turmoil, many of the GOP presidential prospects decided to add their two cents. Marco Rubio spoke through two sides of his mouth. Jeb Bush first supported the bill ...
“I think Gov. Pence has done the right thing,” said Bush in an interview with Hugh Hewitt, an influential conservative radio host. “I think once the facts are established, people aren’t going to see this as discriminatory at all.”
... before he decided
maybe he did not:
“By the end of the week, I think Indiana will be in the right place, which is to say that we need in a big diverse country like America, we need to have space for people to act on their conscience, that it is a constitutional right that religious freedom is a core value of our country, “ Mr. Bush said.
It is evident conservatives lost the RFRA battle. In doing so, Ted Cruz could win the GOP war. The right-wing fringe is mad and will exact revenge in the primaries. While Bush and Rubio are either flip-flopping or hedging their bets,
Cruz is steadfast: “Religious liberty is not some fringe view. It is the basis of this country,” he said. Many have even noted his new
anti-corporate populist façade.
Chuck Todd featured a piece in the video snippet above that illustrates Cruz's likely calculations, noting that the GOP primaries are stacked in the favor of right-wing evangelical voters.
The momentum from that stacking could potentially give Cruz a strong wind in his sail that would take him to victory. His unabated support for the evangelical right wing even as corporations, politicians, and governors caved to the "liberals" could be his ticket. At one time, it was Rand Paul playing chess as he started building a national coalition. Unfortunately for his plans, Paul started reaching out nationally before he secured his right-wing evangelical flank—although it is still not too late for him to recover.
Many think the 2016 election is already cooked, with Hillary Clinton versus Jeb Bush. The pundits smirk at any possibility that either Rand Paul or Ted Cruz could make a real run either in the Republican Party primaries or the general election. Many pundits also doubted two intellectually challenged Republican men could ever become president.
Hillary Clinton's falling poll numbers even before she announces and Jeb Bush's missteps may put much into question. Americans may just snap and decide they are tired of voting for two entitled old-timers. They may shock us by not having the standard voting patterns of presidential election years simply because of apathy. I am seeing much of this on the ground from mostly liberal and moderate Republican voters.
The rational prognostication of elitists on all sides may simply be wrong. Is there a Democratic opportunist ready to go? The GOP has several opportunists that are ready to go, Ted Cruz and/or Rand Paul among them. If Ted Cruz or Rand Paul become the nominee, do remember that both a Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush presidency was considered comedy. They both won and we are living with the consequences. Democrats better learn to play chess rather quickly.