If one wants to look at the potential for a big TPP backfire--one that costs the US more jobs and increases our trade deficit--one need only look at the failed US/Korea Trade Deal.
According to Public Citizen:
The TPP not only replicates, but expands NAFTA's special protections for firms that offshore U.S. jobs. And U.S. TPP negotiators literally used the 2011 Korea FTA – under which exports have fallen and trade deficits have surged – as the template for the TPP. [emphasis mine]
Let's take a peek under the orange instrument of trade truth.
In brief, the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement Implementation Act (KORUS) was signed into law by President Bush in June of 2007 and renegotiated by President Obama.
H.R. 3080, the House version was approved by a 278 to 151 vote (59 Dems for, 130 against; see the vote count here) on 12 October 2011. On the senate side, the bill was introduced by dem Max Baucus and passed the same day (Senate vote #161) by a 83-15 vote (37 dems for, 14 against; see vote count here).
President Obama signed the bill and the bill went into effect in March of 2012.
The bill had an interesting combination of supporters including the United Auto Workers. You can see a number of advocate statements here.
Unlike the UAW, the AFL-CIO strongly opposed the deal. You can see more statements from various groups and interests here.
While the purpose of these trade pacts are purportedly to create jobs in the U.S. and level the trading field for US companies--with the ultimate hope of lowering the trade deficit--that purpose has been belied by the reality of increased imports, decreased exports resulting in an ever-increasing trade deficit. And instead of creating jobs, an estimated 60,000 jobs were lost.
From Public Citizen:
Two years into the Korea FTA, U.S. goods exports to Korea have declined by 5 percent (a $2.2 billion decrease per year) in comparison to the two years before FTA implementation. U.S. meat producers have lost more than $170 million under each year of the FTA in U.S. exports to Korea of beef, pork and poultry, while the U.S. auto and auto parts industries have suffered a 32 percent increase in the
average annual U.S. auto trade deficit with Korea.
Overall, the U.S. trade deficit with Korea has swelled 50 percent, or $7.6 billion, from the year before the FTA took effect to the deal’s second year. Using the export-to-job ratio that the Obama administration employed to project gains from the Korea deal, this drop in net U.S. exports to Korea in the FTA’s first two years represents the loss of more than 50,400 U.S. jobs.
--Average annual imports of cars and auto parts from Korea have soared 31 percent (an increase of $4.9 billion per year) in the FTA’s first two years. The surge in automotive imports has swamped a comparably tiny $294 million annual increase in automotive exports to Korea, spurring a 32 percent increase in the average annual U.S. automotive trade deficit with Korea.
--U.S. beef exports have declined by 10 percent under the FTA in comparison to the two years before the deal, a $62 million loss in beef exports under each year of the Korea FTA.
--U.S. pork exports have fallen by 19 percent in comparison to pre-FTA levels, a $70 million loss in pork exports under each year of the deal.
--U.S. poultry producers have faced a 31 percent collapse of exports to Korea – a $37 million reduction in each of the FTA’s first two years.
[source here. Footnotes ommitted. Emphasis mine.]
Meanwhile, as the overall US Trade deficit has continued to rise, so has the US/Korea trade deficit. The US/Korea trade deficit has risen (in millions of dollars) from $14,284.6 in April of 2012 (the month KORUS began) to $25,060.7 at the end of 2014. [source
here. In the first two years alone, we lost 60,000 trade-related jobs.[source
here]
So there you have it.
For those of you who are interested in contacting your house and senate members to oppose the TPP, you might look at your members' votes on KORUS and let them know YOU KNOW how that is turning out. Links to the votes are in the first para of the body of this diary.
For you Californians, both Sen. Boxer and Sen. Feinstein supported KORUS. Minority Leader Pelosi opposed. Check on your individual member.
The KORUS agreement was a tiny agreement with three countries, the majority of trade with S. Korea. If you understand how NAFTA worked out, and you see how KORUS is working out, there is NO reason to believe that the TPP will be any different.