Want the scoop on hot races around the country? Get the digest emailed to you each weekday morning.
Sign up here.
7:54 AM PT (Jeff Singer): KY-Gov: The nasty and excruciatingly tight GOP primary is finally over. On Friday, state Agriculture Commissioner James Comer conceded to businessman Matt Bevin and endorsed him. Comer's move comes one day after a recanvass left Bevin's 83-vote lead intact. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, who Bevin tried to unseat only one year ago, also endorsed his old rival, though his one-line statement wasn't exactly enthusiastic. Bevin will face Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway in November in a race that both parties will be working hard to win.
8:33 AM PT (Jeff Singer): Phoenix Mayor: A few months ago, it looked like Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton could face real opposition from both the right and the left. However, the filing deadline passed on Wednesday, and mayor's detractors just couldn't find anyone credible willing to face him. Two conservative city councilors attempted to recruit 2014 GOP gubernatorial candidate Christine Jones in February, but she never showed much interest. On the other side of the aisle, AFSCME tried to enlist former Mayor Phil Gordon to take on Stanton, but Gordon endorsed his successor instead. Ultimately, Stanton will face only perennial candidate Matt Jette and Anna Maria Brennan, who took just 5 percent in the 2011 non-partisan primary.
9:03 AM PT (Jeff Singer): AZ-Sen: On Tuesday, Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick announced that she would challenge Republican Sen. John McCain, but the senator may have more immediate problems. Republican Rep. Matt Salmon initially showed little interest in opposing McCain in the primary, but he began to change his tune in April. Conservative groups like the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks have been working hard to recruit Salmon, and the congressman's camp is letting them know that their efforts are bearing fruit. An unnamed source close to Salmon tells The National Journal that Salmon is "taking a serious look," at running, and will likely decide by early August.
If Salmon gets in, McCain is not going to have an easy time beating him back. A May PPP survey gave McCain a wretched 41-50 approval rating with primary voters, and found McCain beating Salmon only 42-40. We haven't seen any other recent primary polls, according to Salmon's allies, they've seen similar numbers. McCain is no pushover, and he proved in 2010 that he's willing to exploit his opponent's weakness. It's also far from clear if state Sen. Kelli Ward will get out of Salmon's way if he jumps in, or if she'll take away some anti-McCain votes that he could badly use. Still, there's little doubt that the GOP base is tired of McCain and that they'll take a serious look at an alternative.
Team Blue will be rooting for a bloody McCain-Salmon primary, but it's anyone's guess who would be an easier general election opponent. PPP found McCain very unpopular statewide with a 36-51 approval rating, while Salmon is more of a blank slate with a 22-25 favorable score. (Salmon lost the 2002 gubernatorial contest by just 1 percent, but it's not shocking that many voters have forgotten about him since then.) However, Salmon's tea party stances could cost him some support even in this conservative state, and his poor relationship with GOP leaders could hamper him in a general election. No matter what, both parties will be watching Salmon's moves closely.
11:14 AM PT (Jeff Singer): San Antonio Mayor: The June 13 runoff between interim Mayor Ivy Taylor and ex-state Sen. Leticia Van De Putte is right around the corner and if the primary results are any indication, things could be tight. However, former state Rep. Mike Villarreal, who took a close third, has decided not to endorse either of the remaining contenders. Most of Villarreal's old constituents live in Van De Putte's former legislative district so his supporters may be more inclined to back her than Taylor, but without any public polling it's hard to draw any conclusions.
1:26 PM PT (Jeff Singer): VT-Gov: Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin barely held back the little-known Scott Milne last year, and the state GOP is smelling blood. Lt. Gov. Phil Scott recently told WCAX that he's considering a bid, and that it won't make a difference if Shumlin runs again or not. Scott has decisively won the lieutenant governorship three times, and he'd almost certainly be the best candidate the GOP can land. While Vermont is one of the bluest states out there, it hasn't been afraid to elect Republican governors. Milne has also expressed interest in running, though he's likely to get pushed aside of Scott gets in. For his part, Shumlin hasn't announced if he'll seek a fourth-two year term yet.
2:19 PM PT: CA-07: Democratic Rep. Ami Bera doesn't have a Republican opponent yet, but he sits in a swingy Sacramento-area district and both of his first two elections were decided by very narrow margins, so you can bet he'll receive a stiff challenge from the GOP again. But he probably wasn't expecting to take some incoming fire from a constituency that usually supports Democrats: organized labor. The AFL-CIO is extremely unhappy that many congressional Democrats, including Bera, are supporting so-called "fast-track" negotiation authority that would allow President Obama to push through a trade deal known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership. (Here's a good explainer.)
Lots of liberals are opposed to the agreement, for a variety of reasons. The AFL focuses on jobs, with a very hostile narrator declaring: "Ami Bera will do anything to keep his job—including shipping your job overseas." The spot goes on to say that fast-track (or really TPP) is "the same kind of trade deal that's already meant millions of lost jobs." A House vote is expected on fast-track this coming week, and the ad is obviously designed to send a message to Bera.
The size of the buy is reportedly "six figures," which almost always means something in the $100,000 range, so it's not huge, nor will many folks remember it a year from now. But if Bera votes in favor of the bill (as he's indicated), the question is whether unions will remember that come next November and be reluctant to come to his aid.