Republican Rep.-elect Dan Donovan
As expected, the GOP easily held this seat in Tuesday's special election to replace disgraced ex-Rep. Michael Grimm. Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan defeated City Councilor Vincent Gentile 59-40 in a race that Democrats had written off at the beginning of the year.
When Grimm announced in late December that he was resigning from this Staten Island district, there was some brief optimism from Democrats that they could put this seat into play. Obama carried it 52-47, and Team Blue had a few potentially strong candidates eyeing the contest. However, it was always clear that this would not be an easy pickup. Grimm's departure came as tensions were rising between law enforcement and Mayor Bill De Blasio over his calls for police reform, tensions that were best exemplified when NYPD officers turned their backs on the mayor at a funeral for two of their murdered colleagues.
While most of the city was sympathetic to De Blasio, Staten Islanders were a lot more likely to side with the officers. And while Donovan attracted plenty of criticism after he did not secure a conviction for the officers who killed Eric Garner, Staten Islanders agreed that the grand jury made the right call.
Local Democrats knew that they would need to run against a popular Republican in a race where the GOP wouldn't hesitate to tie them to De Blasio, something not too many of them were keen to do. Former Rep. Michael McMahon passed on a comeback bid, though it was never clear how interested he really was. But while Democrats hoped that Assemblyman Michael Cusick could make this contest competitive, it soon became clear that even he would be the clear underdog against Donovan. An unknown person even leaked a DCCC poll in January showing Cusick losing by a brutal 48-28 margin, and he unsurprisingly sat the contest out.
Gentile wasn't a bad candidate, and he managed to draw some blood from Donovan after the Republican embarrassed himself at a debate. But both parties knew that this seat wasn't going anywhere in May, and neither side spent any real money trying to contest it. Ultimately, it was no surprise that Donovan dominated on Tuesday.
Team Blue began talking about putting this seat back in play next year even before Donovan's victory was official. Democrats hope that with presidential turnout, the prospect of New Yorker Hillary Clinton leading the ticket, and a stronger candidate with better ties to Staten Island, they can give Donovan a real race. If De Blasio's tensions with the NYPD have also faded from the headlines, it should also give them a better shot here.
Party operatives tell Roll Call that they'll be looking at McMahon and Cusick again, as well as state Sen. Diane Savino. But Donovan will have incumbency on his side, and his blowout win might scare off top-tier opponents. We have a long way to go till the general, but it's going to take a lot for Democrats to flip this seat this time.