Past diaries in this series:
Ohio (15)
Pennsylvania (17)
Illinois (17)
Alabama (6) and Minnesota (7)
North Carolina (14)
Michigan was the only state that from 2000-2010 lost population. While it's growing again, this can only be measured in the ones of thousands and the Great Lakes State will almost certainly lose another district in 2020, dropping it to 13.
In 2010, like most of the country, Michigan was taken over by Republicans. This allowed them to draw Democrats into 5 vote sinks and spread themselves out in the rest of the state. 2018 will be a crucial year for Michigan Democrats if they want to avoid another 2010.
Here's the current map
So here we go, my take on a 13-district Michigan.
The "Dem Average" is an average of these three races:
- Governor 2006 (56-42 Dem win)
- AG 2006 (54-44 Rep win)
- SoS 2006 (56-42 Rep win)
Statewide
District 1 Blue
Voting-age population (VAP): 93.5 W
2008: 49.5 Obama
Average: 44.4 Dem
Incumbent Dan Benishek (R-Iron County) lives here. The entire Upper Peninsula and most of the "fingertips" of the Mitten. Now a large majority (by 150k) live in the lower peninsula, but the UP will always wield a lot of political power in the district. Like the current MI-1, this would be a target for Michigan Democrats, but it will continue to get harder as extraction-based industry like iron and timber moves away from Democrats. Lean R
District 2 Green
VAP: 92.8 W
2008: 41.5 Obama
Avg: 32.9 Dem
Incumbents Bill Huizenga (R-Zeeland) and Justin Amash (R-Cascade Township) live here. Rural western Michigan. Not a whole lot to say, the reddest district in the state. Both incumbents live just on the border of the 2nd and 3rd, Amash would almost certainly run the 3rd. Safe R
District 3 Purple
VAP: 78.2 W, 9.6 Black, 8.2 Hispanic
2008: 54.6 Obama
Avg: 42.1 Dem
Open seat. I particularly like this district, which unites the 4 principal cities of the Grand Rapids-Muskegon Combined Statistical Area: Grand Rapids, Wyoming, Muskegon and Holland. Obama performed well here in 2008 because McCain basically abandoned it, but it's still a conservative area. Amash, who would likely run here, has a bad relationship with national Republicans though. Lean R
District 4 Red
VAP: 88.8 W, 5.5 B
2008: 53.3 Obama
Avg: 46.4 Dem
Incumbent John Moolenaar, He of the Extra Vowels (R-Midland) lives here. The cagina of Michigan. This shifts quite a bit east and south, taking in Saginaw, Bay City and a lot of the Thumb to disrupt the 5th district gerrymander in the current map. Same story as the 3rd, the toplines are attractive from 2008, but would take a lot of investment to flip in the House. Lean R
District 5 Yellow
VAP: 83.8 W, 11.3 B
2008: 57.3 Obama
Avg: 48.8 Dem
Incumbents Dan Kildee (D-Flint) and Mike Bishop (R-Almont) live here. Genesee, Lapeer, and parts of Sanilac, St. Clair and Livingston Counties. A bit of a drop from the old district (63 Obama), but still strongly blue. Safe D
District 6 Cyan
VAP: 84.6 W, 8.6 B
2008: 54.1 Obama
Avg: 45.3 Dem
Incumbent Fred Upton (R-St. Joseph) lives here. Southwestern Michigan, including St. Joe-Benton Harbor, Kalamazoo and Battle Creek. By moving south and east from the current lines the district gets a point better for team Blue, so Upton will continue to need to watch for challengers from the right and the left. As long as Upton is on the ballot though, it's Likely R
District 7 Black
VAP: 83.6 W, 6.8 B
2008: 60.1 Obama
Avg: 51.5 Dem
Incumbent Tim Walberg (R-Tipton) lives here. Washtenaw, Lewanee, Warren, and parts of Livingston and Wayne Counties. The presence of Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti make this a strongly Democratic district. Gretchen Driskell, who is currently running in the 7th, would like this district very much indeed. Safe D
District 8 Blue
VAP: 84.8 W, 6.9 B
2008: 56.6 Obama
Avg: 46.3 Dem
Open seat. Lansing metropolitan area and Jackson. Uniting the Lansing metro area should be the cornerstone of any non-gerrymandered map of the Great Lakes State, if you ask me. Would be an attractive district for any Lansing-area Democrat. Likely D
Detroit
District 9 Cyan
VAP: 83.7 W, 8.1 B
2008: 57.7 Obama
Avg: 49.3 Dem
Incumbent Sander Levin (D-Royal Oak) lives here, as well as retiring incumbent Candice Miller (R-Harrison Township). Southern Macomb and Oakland Counties. More or less identical to Levin's current district. But since he'd be 90 before any map goes into effect, he probably won't still be in the House. Safe D
District 10 Red
VAP: 91.7 W
2008: 45.5 Obama
Avg: 36.4 Dem
Open seat. Northern Oakland and Macomb Counties and southern St. Clair County. The second reddest district in the state. Safe R
District 11 Blue
VAP: 79.8 W, 10.3 B, 5.5 Asian
2008: 57.4 Obama
Avg: 46.9 Dem
Open seat. Oakland and Wayne Counties. Debbie Dingell (D-Dearborn), even though she lives in the majority-black 12th, would probably run here. Safe D
District 12 Green
VAP: 38.4 W, 50.3 B, 7.0 H
2008: 81 Obama
Avg: 70.6 Dem
Majority black. Incumbent John Conyers (D-Detroit) lives here. So does Debbie Dingell, though as I said she'd run in the 11th (or maybe the 7th, who knows). Detroit and Wayne County. Regardless, for Conyers or anyone after him this district is Safe D, black hold
District 13 Purple
VAP: 41.8 W, 51.3 B
2008: 76.2 Obama
Avg: 65.9 Dem
Majority black. Incumbents Brenda Lawrence (D-Southfield) and Dave Trott (R-Birmingham) live here. Wayne and Oakland Counties. Trott likely runs in the 10th. Safe D, black hold
What do you think?