And, even as the white vote has become increasingly less influential in presidential general elections, Republicans have grown increasingly unable to compete for the Hispanic vote, which is growing by leaps and bounds. In 2004, George W. Bush won (a somewhat-disputed) 44 percent of the Hispanic vote. That dropped to 31 percent for John McCain in 2008. Mitt Romney won just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2012.
If the 2016 nominee gets no better than Romney’s 17 percent of the nonwhite vote, he or she would need 65 percent of the white vote to win, a level achieved in modern times only by Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide. Bush’s 2004 winning formula — 26 percent of the nonwhite vote and 58 percent of the white vote — would be a losing formula in 2016, given population changes.
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So if you're basing your prefrence for Dem nominee based on how well they poll against GOP candidates, stop. National polls are meaningless; it;s not a national vote. It's a state by state vote, and the GOP needs a LOT more non-white voter support than they'll be able to get in 2016 (and probably for the foreseeable future).
Vote - instead - for the person who's vision of America you want to live in... This is your best chance in years to vote for ACTUAL change and progressive policies.