The very important findings from a CNN/WMUR poll performed by the University of New Hampshire and released on Friday, were more or less buried by the news coverage of John Boehner’s resignation as Speaker of the House, even on this site. This continuous dominance of the press and the airwaves by the Republicans reinforces this notable fact from the poll itself:
One indication that there is less interest in the Democratic primary is that undeclared voters, often erroneously referred to as “independents”, are much less likely to say they plan to vote in the Democratic primary than they were in 2008. Currently, 41% of undeclared voters say they plan to vote in the Republican primary, 32% plan to vote in the Democratic primary, and 27% say they will not vote in either primary or are unsure which primary they would vote in. At this time in 2007, 46% of undeclared voters said they would vote in the Democratic primary, only 29% said they planned to vote in the Republican primary, and 25% said they would not vote in either primary or were unsure which primary they would vote in. (emphasis mine)
In this semi-open first in the nation primary state, undeclared voters make up a dominant segment of the registered voters at 44%, with Republicans following at 30% and Democrats at 26%,
according to the office of the Secretary of State. Whatever opinion one has about the suitability of New Hampshire’s outsized role in presidential politics, both from a population and demographic composition perspective, voters here are paying more attention to the 2016 election than in other states and trends that occur here are likely to be repeated elsewhere.
There is little doubt that the continued refusal of the DNC and Wasserman Schultz to schedule more debates is hurting both candidates as overall voter registrations in NH are down 8.8% from Nov 2008 to June 2015, but Democratic numbers fall by 18.3% over the same period. Remember, when more people vote, we as Democrats win. So the damage that DWS and her cohorts are inflicting with their misguided attempts to shield HRC from debate exposure is real, and could have effects on races up and down the ballot in the general election.
For more on the poll findings and why I think they indicate that Bernie Sanders is the stronger candidate in both the primary and the general, head beneath the fold.
First a caveat from the poll about likely NH Democratic primary voters, the sample of which is made up of 65% Democrats and 35% Undeclared.
Currently, only 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they have definitely decided who they will support, 28% are leaning toward a candidate, and almost half (47%) are still trying to decide who to support.
With such a large portion of an engaged electorate still undecided, the horserace numbers favor Sanders over Clinton by 16 points with Biden in the race, but only give him a 1 point advantage when polled head to head. However, they are perhaps more significant in their direction from July 2014 to the present, with Bernie going from 5% support to 46% while HRC is moving in the opposite direction, from 59% to 30%, and Biden remains constant at 14%. There is no doubt that momentum is in the Sanders camp and as voters get to know him, they seem to like what he is saying.
As people make up their minds, another important factor is the net favorability rating. The comparisons are valid with all three candidates being equally well known, and among likely voters well over 90% have opinions on the issue. Sanders leads the pack with a 78% net rating to Clinton’s 67% and Biden’s 69%. What’s more, HRC’s negatives at 23% are better than twice Bernie’s at 11%. In addition the movement in these numbers is in the same direction as the horserace numbers, with Hillary declining in net favorability while Bernie is rising. A corollary to this issue is the question of which potential candidate they would NOT vote for under any circumstances. Respondents said 13% would not vote for Clinton, compared to 5% for Sanders. As more voters decide on a candidate they will pick the one they view the most favorably.
Finally a poll question on a trial heat with GOP frontrunner Donald Trump in the general election. Sanders at 57% to 37% more than doubles Clinton’s 50% to 42% lead over Trump with Biden winning at 56% to 37%. Furthermore among independents, Hillary polls at 41% to Trump’s 42% while Bernie runs at a 48% to 39% advantage.
Given these factors it is difficult to see a Clinton path to victory in NH. Her support is primarily among the Democratic faithful and the party machine. Bernie on the other hand has support across the board, and as his message gets out nationally, will continue to rise in the national polls and ultimately with the electorate as a whole. His appeal to independents and young voters will make the difference in defeating the Republican candidate in the general election. This is why I believe he is the best candidate to lead the Democratic party to victory in 2016.