Here’s a Sunday rec list leader — Bernie-Sanders-15-000-Volunteers-on-the-Ground-Today-Hillary-Clinton-Not-So-Much
Very impressive, if true. In fact, in 2004, the total Democratic turnout for the Iowa caucus was 124,000. So these “15,000” volunteers running around the state of Iowa on Sunday, the day early, comprise better than 10% of the expected final caucus tally, if historic norms hold.
However. 538’s got about 79% likelihood of an HRC win, as of 10 pm Sunday. The platinum standard poll for Iowa, Selzer, has Hillary at +3 over Sanders.
Well, can both sides be right? Second, whether Sanders ties or comes in a close second, is that good enough? I don’t think so; this is the contest he’s trained every single monetary resource on to demonstrate his candidate viability. If he’s truly got 15,000 kids running around, he needs to make sure they can vote. Otherwise, it’s wasted motion and wasted resources.
I would say he’s got to win Iowa decisively to have an effect on any future contests. That means by at least 10%, a plurality of 12,400 caucus votes spread out over the 1,751 caucus polling places. Heck, that’s only an average of seven people per caucus site! (And when you add to the Sanders tally you subtract from the HRC one, so he really only need 3½ people per caucus.)
If he can’t do even that, his campaign is stillborn. He may continue as a useful stage foil so HRC can “debate” over the next few months, but his campaign doesn’t have the political heft necessary to even alter the convention planning.
Wednesday, Feb 3, 2016 · 5:31:43 PM +00:00
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jginnane
The above was written Monday, before the caucuses assembled. We know now the results of that effort.
Surprisingly, some of the most politically connected writers are coming to the same conclusion as this diary, that Sanders failed by not winning by a large margin. And as this diary originally demonstrated, the “large” margin, a 10% plurality, was on average only about 7 bodies per precinct.
Today, mid-day Wednesday, the 538 website has Sanders’ chances in NH next week of a win at 91%. That doesn’t mean he’ll win by 91%, just that in ten out of 11 identical contests he’d win. How much will Sanders win by, in the last state with favorable demographics for his candidacy? I’d be shocked if it was less than 40%. Do you agree?