I read on Talking Points Memo earlier today how a lot of people are contacting their congressperson about the threat to Medicare:
A lot of you have been writing in that you've contacted members of the House and Senate and they simply refuse to tell you how their bosses will vote on Paul Ryan's Medicare Phaseout plan. They've never heard of it; there's no bill; the boss doesn't have a position yet. Yada yada yada. Here's something that will help. There is a plan. In fact, there's a bill. And virtually every member of the House at least has voted on it. The Ryan Medicare Phaseout proposal is part of the Ryan budget which has been voted on in the House every year since 2011.
And a lot of people, still in shock, figure Ryan has already won this battle.
Not exactly.
John Marshall has a useful link in his article to the recorded vote on the last time Ryan tried to impose his Ayn Rand dream on America. His bill passed the House 219 to 204 with 6 not voting: 182 Democrats voted against (6 did not vote), & 26 Republicans voted against it, & 219 Republicans voted for it. If it looks like a close vote, that’s because it actually was: had the 6 Democrats not present voted against the bill, & 5 Republicans changed their vote, it would have passed. I figured those 11 Representatives assured themselves that the President would veto the bill & let them off the hook.
Well, elections have consequences.
First, the House changed its composition a little more than 6 Democrats replacing 6 Republicans; many more Republicans retired than were voted out; in all 9 were voted out, while 3 Democrats also lost their seats. (There’s a chance for a pickup in Louisiana; not a likely one, but let’s not dismiss the possibility.) The end results is that of the 26 Republicans who voted against the bill 22 will be in the next congress. Add to that the 193 Democratic votes that Nancy Pelosi has been able to keep as a solid block, & assuming the new Republican Representatives vote the same way their predecessors did, that still pencils out to a 215-213 possible vote against Ryan’s plan.
In other words, Ryan’s vision for Medicare is not a done deal. Add to that the insurance companies & the health care industry is going to be pushing back against Ryan: they’ve started to adjust to the new rules, & Ryan’s phase-out means there will be less money available to pay them. They’ll need to rethink how to make profits. And a few of them knew the pre-ACA system was broken, & it was only a matter of time before they’d go bankrupt under it.
I want to emphasize that this does not mean we can all relax & focus on other things. Egberto Willes published a diary arguing that Ryan & the rest of them are trying to distract us so they can push thru his plan to dismantle Medicare & the rest of the health care plan. But instead of concluding that we are all just screwed & the bad guys have won, we should be take courage that we have a good chance of stopping them cold, despite that they have control of both houses & the executive branch. If we fight, we can win.