With the election coming up in a few days, here is my previews on the key elections of Illinois and Missouri that their state’s voters will be voting on Tuesday (or earlier if you already have done so).
POTUS (Clinton/Kaine [D] v. Trump/Pence [R])
- Illinois: Safe D
- Missouri: Safe R
(Ratings are as of the 11.05.2016 update)
US Senate
Illinois: Tammy Duckworth (D) v. Mark Kirk (R) v. Kenton McMillen (L) v. Scott Summers (G) In the battle for President Obama’s old Senate seat, incumbent Kirk and challenger Duckworth battle it out to see who will get to serve for the next six years. The state’s lean, especially in Presidential years, favors Duckworth’s party. Kirk’s pretty much a goner at this point, especially after the racist insult he spewed at her at a recent debate between the two.
Rating: Safe D. Duckworth is favored to give this seat back to Team Blue. Missouri: Jason Kander (D) v. Roy Blunt (R) v. Jonathan Dine (L) v. Jonathan McFarland (G) v. Fred Ryman (C)
The battle between Blunt and Kander in this reddening state is a lot closer than what anybody predicted to be. Conservative Washington insider and lobbyist (Blunt) v. Moderate military man who served our country proudly (Kander) is the storyline of this particular race.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R. The race is close, but Blunt has consistently held narrow leads and the state’s lean means he’s favored. Kander could pull off a win.
(Ratings are as of the 11.05.2016 update)
US House:
Illinois:
IL-06: Amanda Howland (D) v. Peter Roskam (R)
While Clinton may win the district, Roskam’s still the favorite to win.
Rating: Safe R.
IL-08: Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) v. Pete DiCianni (R) This seat is open due to Duckworth’s run for Senate. After multiple primary losses, Krishnamoorthi finally gets win on Tuesday.
Rating: Safe D.
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D) v. Robert Dold (R)
This is the perpetual swing seat in Illinois, flipping every two years. Dold was victorious in the GOP-wave midterm years of 2010 and 2014, while Schneider got it in 2012 in a Presidential year.
Rating: Tilt D.
IL-12: C.J. Baricevic (D) v. Mike Bost (R) v. Paula Bradshaw (G)
This district has been historically Democratic; however, the trend favors the GOP. This will be an Obama 2012/Trump 2016 district. Baricevic’s message on trade issues should resonate here, but Bost is still the narrow favorite.
Rating: Lean R.
lL-13: Mark Wicklund (D) v. Rodney Davis (R)
This district has some prominent colleges (UIUC, Millikin, UIS), but Davis is still the favorite.
Rating: Safe R.
IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D) v. Patrick Harlan (R)
Rating: Safe D.
Missouri:
MO-02: Bill Otto (D) v. Ann Wagner (R) v. Jim Higgins (L)
Rating: Safe R.
(Ratings are as of the 11.05.2016 update)
Gubernatorial
MO-Gov: Chris Koster (D) v. Eric Greitens (R) v. Cisse Spragins (L) v. Don Fitz (G)
Incumbent Gov. Jay Nixon (D) is termed out of the office, so a battle emerges between ex-Democrat (Greitens) and ex-Republican (Koster) battle it out for the right to govern Missouri for the next four years in this reddening state. Koster means a check on the GOP-dominated supermajority on certain issues, while Greitens means a GOP-dominated horror show in the Show-Me State.
Rating: Tilt D
MO-Lt. Gov: Russ Carnahan (D) v. Mike Parson (R) v. Steven Hedrick (L) v. Jennifer Leach (G)
This seat is open due to Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R)’s decision to run for Governor, and he lost to Greitens. Carnahan should be the favorite in this race, but the reddening tide of the state of keeps Parson alive.
Rating: Tilt D.
Other Statewide Offices
Illinois:
IL-Comp (Special): Susana Mendoza (D) v. Leslie Munger (R) v. Claire Ball (L) v. Tim Curtin (G) This special election is to fill the seat for the remainder of the deceased Judy Baar Topinka (R)’s term. The next regular election for this seat is in 2018, with the rest of the statewide offices. If Mendoza wins, then the office flips to Democratic hands. If Munger prevails, then the office stays in team Red’s favor until 2018.
Rating: Tilt D. Mendoza should be favored, especially in a Presidential year.
Missouri:
MO-AG: Teresa Hensley (D) v. Josh Hawley (R)
This seat is open due to Koster’s decision to run for Governor. Hensley and Hawley are battling it out for the right to either keep the office or flip the office into their party’s column.
Rating: Likely R. Hawley is favored, especially with Missouri reddening at the statewide level.
MO-SoS: Robin Smith (D) v. Jay Ashcroft (R) v. Chris Morrill (Lib.)
This seat is open due to Kander’s decision to run for Senate. Smith’s name recognition from her days at KMOV should translate to extra votes for her in the counties that KMOV covers (basically the STL DMA), while Ashcroft’s the son of former Senator, Governor, and Bush 43 US Attorney General John Ashcroft.
Rating: Tossup. This race will go down to the wire.
MO-Treas: Judy Baker (D) v. Eric Schmitt (R) v. Sean O'Toole (L) v. Carol Hexem (G)
This seat is open due to Clint Zweifel (D) being termed out. Baker and Schmitt are battling it out for their respective parties to either keep it or flip it to their party.
Rating: Likely R. Schmitt is favored, especially with Missouri reddening at the statewide level.
(Ratings are as of the 11.05.2016 update)
State House
Illinois:
IL-HD63: John M. Bartman (D) v. Steven Reick (R)
This seat became open due to Jack Franks (D)’s resignation. This seat should still favor Team Blue, especially in a Presidential year.
Rating: Lean D.
IL-HD71: Mike Smiddy (D) v. Tony McCombie (R)
Rating: Tilt D.
IL-HD79: Katherine Cloonen (D) v. Lindsay Parkhurst (R)
Cloonen has narrowly won this seat the last couple of elections, and is the very narrow favorite to win here.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt D.
IL-HD95: Mike Mathis (D) v. Avery Bourne (R)
Rating: Likely R.
IL-HD99: Tony DelGiorno (D) v. Sara Wojcicki Jimenez (R)
Rating: Tossup
IL-HD111: Daniel V. Beiser (R) v. Mike Babcock (R)
Rating: Safe D.
IL-HD112: Katie Stuart (D) v. Dwight D. Kay (R)
The battle in this district is between the calm and pragmatic Stuart v. brash and arrogant clown Kay.
Rating: Tossup. Either candidate could win this.
IL-HD113: Jay C. Hoffman (D) v. Katherine Ruocco (R)
Rating: Safe D.
IL-HD114: LaToya Greenwood (D) v. Bob Romanik (R)
Eddie Lee Jackson decided not to run again, so this seat’s open. The battle is between blowhard Bob Romanik and East St. Louis councilwoman LaToya Greenwood.
Rating: Likely D.
IL-HD117: John E. Bradley (D) v. Dave Severin (R) Bradley is still the favorite in this reddening district. Severin won’t win, but could hold Bradley to single digits or low double digits.
Rating: Likely D.
IL-HD118: Brandon W. Phelps (D) v. Jason Kasiar (R)
Same as HD117, Bradley is still the favorite in this reddening district. Kasiar won’t win, but could hold Phelps to single digits or low double digits.
Rating: Likely D.
Missouri:
MO-HD14: Martin Rucker II (D) v. Kevin Corlew (R)
Rating: Likely R
MO-HD17: Mark Ellebracht (D) v. Mary Hill (R) v. Erik Buck (L)
Mary Hill is running for the GOP, after knocking off incumbent Nick King in the August primary.
Rating: Tossup.
MO-HD44: Tom Pauley (D) v. Cheri Reisch (R)
This seat is open due to Caleb Rowden (R)’s run for State Senate.
Rating: Tossup.
MO-HD65: Kenny Biermann (D) v. Tom Hannegan (R) v. Dean Hodge (L)
This seat is open due to Anne Zerr (R)’s decision to not to run again.
Rating: Likely R.
MO-HD70: Byron DeLear (D) v. Mark Matthiesen (R)
This seat is open due to Bill Otto (D)’s decision to run for Congress against Ann Wagner.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt D.
MO-HD90: Deb Lavender (D) v. Mark Milton (R)
Rating: Lean D
MO-HD92: Doug Beck (D) v. Daniel Bogle (R)
This seat is open due to the resignation of Genise Montecillo (D).
Rating: Likely D.
MO-HD94: Vicki Englund (R) v. Cloria Brown (R)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R
MO-HD117: Travis Barnes (D) v. Mike Henderson (R)
This seat is open due to Linda Black (R)’s decision to not run again. NOTE: Black switched parties one day after the 2014 elections. This portion of the state is reddening, thus helping out Henderson’s odds.
Ratings: Lean R.
State Senate
Illinois:
IL-SD49: Jennifer Bertino-Tarrant (D) v. Michelle Smith (R)
Rating: Likely D.
IL-SD58: Sheila Simon (D) v. Paul Schimpf (R)
Both candidates running for the right to replace the retiring Dave Luechtefeld (R) ran statewide in 2014, and lost their respective races (Simon: Comptroller, Schimpf: Attorney General). Most of the turf is favorable to the GOP.
Rating: Lean to Likely R.
IL-SD59: Gary Forby (D) v. Dale Fowler (R)
As with Bradley and Phelps’s seats in the State House, Forby is still the favorite in this reddening district. Fowler won’t win, but could hold Forby to a single digits win.
Rating: Likely D
Missouri:
MO-SD01: Scott Sifton (D) v. Randy Jotte (R)
Rating: Tossup/Tilt D.
MO-SD15: Stephen Eagleton (D) v. Andrew Koenig (R) This seat is open due to Schmitt (R)’s decision to run for Treasurer.
Rating: Likely R.
MO-SD19: Stephen Webber (D) v. Caleb Rowden (R)
This seat is open due to Kurt Schaefer (R) running for Attorney General. He lost to Hawley in the August primary. This seat features Mizzou, and should be a close one.
Rating: Tossup/Tilt R
Judiciary
IL-AC05: Stewart vacancy
- Brad K. Bleyer (D)
- John B. Barberis Jr. (R)
Wexstten vacancy
- Jo Beth Weber (D)
- James R. Moore (R)
Rating: Bleyer and Weber favored.
Ballot Measures
Illinois Amendment [1] (Road Tax) | Recommendation: Vote your conscience. Projection: Safe Pass. Ballot Language:
The proposed amendment adds a new section to the Revenue Article of the Illinois Constitution. The proposed amendment provides that no moneys derived from taxes, fees, excises, or license taxes, relating to registration, titles, operation, or use of vehicles or public highways, roads, streets, bridges, mass transit, intercity passenger rail, ports, or airports, or motor fuels, including bond proceeds, shall be expended for other than costs of administering laws related to vehicles and transportation, costs for construction, reconstruction, maintenance, repair, and betterment of public highways, roads, streets, bridges, mass transit, intercity passenger rail, ports, airports, or other forms of transportation, and other statutory highway purposes, including the State or local share to match federal aid highway funds. You are asked to decide whether the proposed amendment should become part of the Illinois Constitution.
Missouri Prop A (Cigarette Tax) | Recommendation: Vote NO. Projection: Safe Fail.
Ballot Language:
Shall Missouri law be amended to:
- increase taxes on cigarettes in 2017, 2019, and 2021, at which point this additional tax will total 23 cents per pack of 20;
- increase the tax paid by sellers on other tobacco products by 5 percent of manufacturer’s invoice price;
- use funds generated by these taxes exclusively to fund transportation infrastructure projects; and
- repeal these taxes if a measure to increase any tax or fee on cigarettes or other tobacco products is certified to appear on any local or statewide ballot?
State government revenue will increase by approximately $95 million to $103 million annually when cigarette and tobacco tax increases are fully implemented, with the new revenue earmarked for transportation infrastructure. Local government revenues could decrease approximately $3 million annually due to decreased cigarette and tobacco sales.
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Missouri Amendment 1 (Sales Tax, Parks) | Recommendation: Vote YES. Projection: Safe Pass. Ballot Language:
Shall Missouri continue for 10 years the one-tenth of one percent sales/use tax that is used for soil and water conservation and for state parks and historic sites, and resubmit this tax to the voters for approval in 10 years? The measure continues and does not increase the existing sales and use tax of one-tenth of one percent for 10 years. The measure would continue to generate approximately $90 million annually for soil and water conservation and operation of the state park system.
Missouri Amendment 2 (Campaign Contributions) | Recommendation: Vote YES. Projection: Safe Pass.
Ballot Language:
Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to:
- establish limits on campaign contributions by individuals or entities to political parties, political committees, or committees to elect candidates for state or judicial office;
- prohibit individuals and entities from intentionally concealing the source of such contributions;
- require corporations or labor organizations to meet certain requirements in order to make such contributions; and
- provide a complaint process and penalties for any violations of this amendment?
It is estimated this proposal will increase state government costs by at least $118,000 annually and have an unknown change in costs for local governmental entities. Any potential impact to revenues for state and local governmental entities is unknown.
Missouri Amendment 3 (Tobacco Tax) | Recommendation: Vote NO. Projection: Lean Fail.
Ballot Language:
Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to:
- increase taxes on cigarettes each year through 2020, at which point this additional tax will total 60 cents per pack of 20;
- create a fee paid by cigarette wholesalers of 67 cents per pack of 20 on certain cigarettes, which fee shall increase annually; and
- deposit funds generated by these taxes and fees into a newly established Early Childhood Health and Education Trust Fund?
When cigarette tax increases are fully implemented, estimated additional revenue to state government is $263 million to $374 million annually, with limited estimated implementation costs. The revenue will fund only programs and services allowed by the proposal. The fiscal impact to local governmental entities is unknown.
Missouri Amendment 4 (Sales Tax) | Recommendation: Vote NO. Projection: Safe Fail.
Ballot Language:
Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to prohibit a new state or local sales/use or other similar tax on any service or transaction that was not subject to a sales/use or similar tax as of January 1, 2015?
Potential costs to state and local governmental entities are unknown, but could be significant. The proposal’s passage would impact governmental entity’s ability to revise their tax structures. State and local governments expect no savings from this proposal.
Missouri Amendment 6 (Voter Suppression, Voter ID) | Recommendation: Vote NO. Projection: Safe Pass.
Ballot Language:
Shall the Constitution of Missouri be amended to state that voters may be required by law, which may be subject to exception, to verify one’s identity, citizenship, and residence by presenting identification that may include valid government-issued photo identification?
The proposed amendment will result in no costs or savings because any potential costs would be due to the enactment of a general law allowed by this proposal. If such a general law is enacted, the potential costs to state and local governments is unknown, but could exceed $2.1 million annually.
My Schedule:
- 11.05.2016 (Afternoon): Ballot Measures.
- 11.05.2016 (Evening/Overnight): Missouri and Illinois.
- 11.06.2016 (Afternoon): Gubernatorial
- 11.06.2016 (Evening/Overnight): House
- 11.07.2016 (Afternoon): Senate
- 11.08.2016 (Overnight): POTUS/VP + Final predictions + GOTV