As I first wrote about here (www.dailykos.com/...), one possible outcome of the Electoral College vote on December 19 is to send the election to Congress. I’m working through all the Representatives in the new Congress to determine what may be possible in this case, known as a contingent election.
There will be three candidates in this election for President: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and likely a sane Republican.
I still have 10 more states to go (mostly alphabetically), but I wanted to provide an update on my findings.
Based strictly on considering that hardcore Trump supporters would stay for Trump, that Democrats would stay for Clinton, and that Gruding-to-Never Republicans would go for a 3rd Republican within the state, an initial ballot would be (again, with just the first 40 states):
Clinton — 16
Trump — 13
3rd Republican — 11
It’s also important here to remember that a strict majority of 26 states is needed to win, and balloting continues until someone reaches that number.
Some observations:
Some Republican-rich states have significant numbers of GOP Representatives who have expressed extreme distaste for Trump. Some of them have called on Trump to step aside in favor of Pence. But most supported Trump only against Clinton. This includes Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, and Ohio. There are a number of states where votes would be exactly split, like Idaho, which would force a compromise to arrive at a single vote.
This is an environment ripe for deal-making, both within state delegations and among them. Nothing is at all guaranateed here. But wouldn’t it be great if a deal was struck to end the Great (fraudulent) Dealmaker’s reign before it starts?
I’ll update again when my findings are complete.