Bernie Sanders is supposed to lose big today. In fact, he tops out at 30% as we have famously been told. Hillary’s strategy was/is to rack up the donors and endorsements then thump Bernie in Iowa, forcing him to quit. It’s not shaping up.
Instead, Bernie has over 3 million donors and is poised to shock the world with a ground game in Iowa that will go down in history with tonight’s results, regardless of who eventually wins the nomination.
Call this moving the goalposts if you want but we never predicted a 30% cap. We didn’t engage in a calculated divide and conquer strategy of the Progressive base. We never predicted inevitability.
He is running against low expectations and he is winning.
And that’s what this is about- winning the nomination…..the ultimate goal post. Bernie supporters are participating in the campaign process, expectations and conventional wisdom be damned.
We are chasing the nomination, not trying to live up to data driven predictions. Note to data nerds- data tells the present and the past. It can never tell you the future. No matter how smart you are. That’s what campaigns and elections are for.
To Bernie’s volunteers a close result tonight is still a huge win! It means we covered the gap and beat expectations. It means we will be feeling the big mo’ along with the Bern!
To Hillary’s volunteers a close win will mean a sigh of relief and the onset of panic. Or am I little late for that second part? I know, I’ve been there.
But to Bernie’s most active supporters it will mean the taste of sweet sweet victory is a little closer!!! I know, I’ve been there!
The media will look like agenda pushers, including the front page here, and it will make fence-sitting voters second guess the coverage they have seen. And Bernie volunteers will be there to make the point!
A close result in Iowa will mean millions of disengaged Dem voters around the country will say “Who?” And Bernie’s volunteers will be there to answer!
It means the media will have to include him in the conversation moving forward, and the story will be “can Hillary recover?” Who knows, maybe the Dailykos front page will replace Ben Carson coverage with some Bernie news. Wouldn’t that be nice!
People like to describe their selves as supporters. But choosing a candidate is not support. Blogging is not support. Hell, voting for a candidate barely counts.
Support is making phone calls, donating, and knocking on doors. Support is giving your available time and money.
By those definitions Bernie Sanders has more support than Hillary Clinton. No matter how many obsolete national polls she leads. She doesn’t have the volunteers/support to end this race tonight.
Even if she squeaks out a win.
Now if you’ll excuse me, I have some support to give….