In poll after poll, we hear that “older” voters support Hillary, while “younger” voters support Bernie. And we all know that older voters tend to vote more reliably than younger voters, but what does “older” and “younger” mean when it comes to the numbers of actual voters?
I love demographics, so I thought I’d look a bit further into the Iowa demographics to see how the ages of Iowans might translate into votes at the caucus. With the help of the 2010 US Census, I found some interesting numbers.
Using the Iowa Registered Voter info here: censusviewer.com/… we can see:
Adding up the numbers:
32% of Iowa’s Registered Voters are under 40, while 68% are over 40
47% of Iowa’s Registered Voters are under 50, while 53% are over 50.
When discussing “older” vs. “younger” voters, the groups are often divided at 35 or 45, so assuming that the ages are distributed fairly evenly across the decades, dividing the 30-39 year olds and 40-49 year olds in half means:
About 24% of Iowa’s Registered Voters are under 35, and about 76% are over 35.
About 39% of Iowa’s Registered Voters are under 45, and about 61% are over 45.
No matter how you slice it, “younger” voters are a minority in Iowa.
(Disclaimer: I did not find an age breakdown of Democratic vs. Republican voters ages, so it’s “possible” that Democratic voters ages skew younger, but I doubt it’s anywhere near enough to overcome the preponderance of older voters in the state).
So, it appears that a candidate relying on “younger” voters to propel them to victory in Iowa is not only expecting younger voters to have unprecedented turnout, they are also expecting younger voters to turnout in numbers that far exceed their actual proportion of Registered Voters.
I don’t see that happening, no matter how enthusiastic younger voters happen to be.
Enjoy the caucus coverage tonight!