The #ImWithHer crowd has been doing their best to ignore or dismiss the successes that Bernie Sanders have achieved in the opening rounds of the primary season, noting that both Iowa and New Hampshire are lily white, and don’t reflect the electorate that Bernie and Hillary will be wooing in the upcoming primaries. They point out Hillary’s strong support among minority voters, which has resulted in Hillary polling 30 points in front of Bernie in South Carolina.
But these are based on polling averages before Bernie’s huge successes (a 20pt victory and a $5M money bomb fund raiser) coming out of New Hampshire. Playing the expectations game, I don’t expect the Hillary campaign will be talking up a potential 30 point victory.
Two factors will play into how close this race in South Carolina actually turns out. First is how much of that polling lead can Hillary hold onto, and what progress the Sanders campaign make in closing the polling gap. But the second one will be hard to predict, and we’ll probably have to wait for exit polling to get the answer.
And that is actual minority voter turnout. Turnout among white D’s is down overall from 2008, do we have an idea of what kind of turnout we’ll see from minorities in 2016 versus 2008? If that participation drop off is steeper than we’ve seen among white voters, that spells trouble for Hillary’s vaunted firewall. She’s counting on the Obama coalition to save her, but what if they don’t turn out? And what if some of those who do turn out happen to be younger millennials who cast their votes for Bernie?
Bernie Sanders' 20+ point drubbing of Hillary last night sent shockwaves through the punditry. Trying to imagine what a close race in South Carolina would have on the calculus of many (including Super Delegates, Bloomberg, SuperPACs funding the Hillary campaign). Should be an interesting week coming up ahead of us.