Cross posted from Pruning Shears.
Over the weekend Paul Krugman raised his (ahem) concerns about the electability of Bernie Sanders. It seems that Krugman, who will be the first to tell you he is completely neutral,1 has reviewed a post from a site with a curiously anti-Sanders stance and has concluded that a Sanders nomination would invite a "McGovern-Nixon style blowout defeat." To avoid that fate liberals would be wise to vote instead for Hillary Clinton. And those who stubbornly insist on voting for Sanders should be prepared to explain their temper tantrum.
My initial reaction was to almost laugh. Krugman is an enthusiastic Clinton supporter who engages in the same kind of cherry-picked analysis that he is so quick to perceive in others. He'll eagerly link to the latest Vox piece supporting his position. But less congenial evidence, when it gets acknowledged at all, gets passive-aggressive and unsourced hit pieces. He's a big Clinton fan, has a history of alleging calumny by supporters of other Democratic presidential candidates, and is every bit as blinkered as the "feel the Bern" types he holds in such contempt.
But anyway, while he says we may "consider the evidence and reach your own conclusions" (thanks Paul!) he cautions that we should not "decide what you want to believe and then make up justifications." So lest I be accused of epistemic closure I'll take the Krugman Challenge and look at electability for a minute.
What are the chances of a McGovern-style blowout if Sanders wins? Sanders and McGovern share one very important similarity: neither would receive any support from the Democratic party establishment. Give that whatever weight you will.
Now for some differences. First, there is not an incumbent Republican president running for re-election. Second and somewhat related, the Republicans look like they will be nominating a candidate who is toxic outside of the GOP base. So even if you think Bernie really is a big scary radical, this is an unusually good year to nominate one. Third, the Archie Bunker-type union leaders who hated the goddamn hippies and withheld support from McGovern have been replaced by a new generation of leaders - many of whom have welcomed Sanders' run. Ideological sorting has made a candidate like Sanders much more appealing among the party's current constituencies.
Fourth, Sanders matches up very well against Republicans, at least by some measures. Fifth, and conversely, polling is also unreliable at this stage. Sanders' good showing now could evaporate, or maybe it doesn't even exist, or maybe it does and only gets stronger, or who the hell knows. It's way too early for that, but God knows it's too early for the kind of extended thought experiments Krugman approvingly links to as well.
All that said, I think electability arguments are mostly red herrings. The idea that one must vote based on a kind of cost/benefit analysis (which may itself be deeply flawed!) is largely specious. Citizens can cast their votes for any number of reasons, and no one - certainly not Paul Krugman - is in a position to tell them that some ballots are more legitimate than others.
What he derides as "believing things, and advocating for policies, because you like the story rather than because you have any good evidence that it’s true" could also be characterized as an endorsing of a platform. It's saying, this is what I want. This is what's really, really important to me. I don't care if you think it doesn't stand a chance of becoming law. What you are offering is not what I need. Who is Krugman to say people should not use their votes to express that sentiment, whatever its chances of electing a candidate who endorses it? Pushing for policies from outside the mainstream is the only way any of our major social programs made it into the mainstream.
An approach like Krugman's amounts to a perpetual continuation of the status quo. Maybe we'll nibble at the edges, but no fundamental changes will ever happen (feasible is the new serious, dontcha know). So we should, grudgingly if necessary, resign ourselves to the savvy course of betting on the horse that has the best odds. As someone who's been very critical of third party candidates, I think that's a load of crap. It's not the voter's job to decide to who is most electable, it's the candidate's job to become electable.
NOTES
1. Yes he acknowledges that he has opinions, but in the very next sentence positions himself as objectively floating above the fray, just trying to raise awareness. To borrow from Charles Pierce, please to be giving me a fking break professor.
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