Since the caucuses are lame and don’t reveal actual vote totals, we are stuck parsing entrance/exit polls. For whatever reason, they also don’t give absolute numbers or percentages of who is actually getting supported. However they give enough data to make a reasonable calculation.
At this time, Men made up 44% of the Democratic Caucus voters polled, Women 56%. Men tend to vote more Republican, so that is not unusual.
Men went 53% Sanders, 44% Clinton, 3% my vote doesn’t matter to me.
Women went 41% Sanders, 57% Clinton, 3% what do you mean no one cares about my 3rd party protest vote.
This makes for an easy calculation.
Sanders = (0.44 x 0.53) + (0.56 X 0.41) = 46.3%
Clinton = (0.44 x 0.44) + (0.56 x 0.57) = 51.3%
Note that this is only as good as the polling, but it is all we have. It also only measures intent — if people switch for whatever reason during the process, the entrance polls can’t capture that information.
This same methodology showed that Hillary won the (intended) popular vote in Iowa by 4%.