Not sure if this is a feature or a bug, but next week’s Democratic Presidential primary consists largely of red states which will reliably vote for Trump next fall.
primary
DATE |
STATE |
pledged
DELEGATES |
RED OR BLUE STATE (# TIMES VOted FOR DEMOCRAT in LAST 5 pres. elections)
|
PROJECTED PRIMARY WINNER
|
UPCOMING primaries - the southern Firewall
2/27 |
SC |
53 |
0/5 = RED State |
Clinton +24 |
|
|
|
|
|
3/1 |
TX |
222 |
0/5 = RED State |
Clinton +22 |
3/1 |
GA |
102 |
0/5 = RED State |
Clinton +43 |
3/1 |
AL |
53 |
0/5 = RED State |
Clinton +28 |
3/1 |
OK |
38 |
0/5 = RED State |
Clinton +14 |
|
|
|
|
|
3/1 |
TN |
67 |
1/5 = RED State |
Clinton +23 |
3/1 |
AR |
32 |
1/5 = RED State |
Clinton +28 |
|
|
|
|
|
3/1 |
VA |
95 |
2/5 = SWING State |
Clinton +17 |
3/1 |
CO |
66 |
2/5 = SWING State |
? (old polls) |
|
|
|
|
|
3/1 |
MA |
91 |
5/5 = BLUE State |
Sanders +3 |
3/1 |
MN |
77 |
5/5 = BLUE State |
? (old polls) |
3/1 |
VT |
16 |
5/5 = BLUE State |
Sanders +75 |
|
|
|
|
|
3/5 |
LA |
51 |
1/5 = RED State |
? |
3/5 |
KS |
33 |
0/5 = RED State |
? |
3/5 |
NE |
25 |
0/5 = RED State |
? |
|
|
|
|
|
total red |
10 |
676 |
|
|
total blue |
3 |
184 |
|
|
total swing |
2 |
161 |
|
|
Yes, next week’s results will be heavily weighted by South Carolina (first up), followed by Texas & Georgia (largest states on Super Tuesday). If recent history is any guide, NONE of these three states is going to vote Democratic in November. In fact, 10 of the 15 upcoming states voted consistently for Republicans in the last 5 presidential elections & will almost definitely vote for Truzio in November, regardless of whom the Dems (or Repubs) nominate. Maybe Clinton has a slight shot at recapturing AR, but even that is probably tough after so much time away in NY/DC.
On the flip side, 3 states (MA, MN, VT) voted for the Democrat in all 5 recent presidential elections & are solid BLUE. They will vote for the Democratic candidate regardless of whether it’s Clinton or Sanders.
The remaining 2 states (VA & CO) could be considered SWING states or maybe Leaning-RED states. IMHO, these 2 states should be the focus of analysis on Super Tuesday, as they will likely help decide the election in November (the old electability issue). My guess is that each candidate really needs to win at least one of these 2 states to maintain momentum for the next phase of the race, regardless of the results in the solid Red & solid Blue states.
P.S. Here’s a nice primary map/calendar….couldn’t get it embedded at the top :(