I’m posting this for purely selfish reasons, hoping for some mathematical genius out there to tell me the very good reasons why this statistical model will add up to a steaming load of manure.
BUT FIRST — a comment that I am reposting from an avid, or should I say rabid, Trump supporter who commented on this model:
“The Constitution has been dying since Lincoln overthrew it to save the Union. With every president more power gets accumulated in the executive branch. The only exception is the Supreme Court which consists of unelected jurists who make rulings without concern for the actual words of the Constitution or the intent of the men who drafted it. Under these circumstances, we might as well have a strong man who will at least act in the interests of traditional Americans. As to the logistics, it is quite possible to deport 12 million or even 30 million. We just need to find the will. We are constantly told that during WW2 Germany was able to round up 11 million people. If they could do it more than 70 years ago, we can certainly do it today.”
So now on to the actual reason for this post and my hand wringing — a professor of political science recently made a little news with his statistical model, which he says has been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections for like a hundred years — with the exception of 1960.
Norpoth created a statistical model of presidential elections that uses a candidate’s performance in their party’s primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.
Given that history — he says he was shocked when he ran the numbers and it came up all Trump. Like Trump winning nearly 55% of the popular vote.
So, please proceed and yell at me for my hand wringing, but I’d also like to see some statistical data that says the complete opposite. (I’ve looked and can’t find any)
This is a link to the actual primary model I believe