OK. I want to get this right out front. I am voting for Hillary Clinton in the Illinois primary on Tuesday. Not because I believe she is a better candidate, but because I believe she has the best chance of winning the general election.
And before you flood the comments with polls showing Bernie Sanders doing better in hypothetical match-ups, I KNOW. I have seen the same polls you have. But that match-up is eight months out. And if you don’t think the Republicans will tie that “socialist” tag around his ankles like a lead anchor, I envy your naivete. These are the same people who made a war hero out to be a coward, and a Hawai’i-born Christian to be a scarrry Muslim. They WILL do this. And a substantial chunk of the electorate is dumb enough to fall for it (see Bush, George W.).
My question to the Bernie supporters is this: How many delegates do you think he has to get on Tuesday to remain a viable candidate? I ask this out of sincere curiosity, not to stir up a flame-war between Hillary and Bernie supporters. Right now the NYT shows Hillary ahead in the pledged count 766-551, a spread of 215. There are 792 delegates up for grabs on Tuesday.
As of today, the polls seem to give Hillary an edge in all five states. And yes, I know how badly the pollsters screwed the pooch in Michigan. If, say, Hillary gets 450+ of those 792 delegates (something that seems reasonable, IF the polling is accurate), Bernie will be down 320+ among pledged delegates. Assuming the superdelegates don’t flock to Bernie en masse (and yes, I know how much many of the Bernie supporters hate the superdelegate system) she will have nearly 1700 total delegates, only 700 delegates away from reaching the magic mark of 2383. While Senator Sanders will be at only 900.
I say this not to taunt those who support Senator Sanders. I am not saying he should quit the race. But there will come a time when the math simply does not work. With that in mind, how many delegates do his supporters think he has to grab on Tuesday to actually have a reasonable chance?
Please, be kind in the comments. Both to myself, and to those who may support a different candidate. I would like this to be a substantial discussion, not a flame-war. Thanks.