Everybody’s demanding that the U.S. Senate take action on Judge Merrick Garland, President Obama’s nominee for the Supreme Court seat left vacant by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia. Petitions are flying; righteous indignation is rampant.
The Senate Republicans are stonewalling, saying the decision should be left for the next session.
But wait a minute.
For those supporting Judge Garland, possibly the worst thing that could happen would be for Mitch McConnell and the gang to wake up and say, “Why, sure! We’ll hold a vote on the President’s nominee.”
If the vote goes along party lines, the Republicans have 54 votes. End of story unless the Democrats can persuade four Republicans to defect without losing any of their own number and keeping Maine Senator Angus King, an independent, in the fold.
But there’s another twist: The NRA and Gun Owners of America are in full attack mode and that complicates things.
In the current Senate, there are 55 Senators rated “A” by the NRA. 48 of those are Republicans. There are two more Republicans with grades of “B.” There are also seven Democrats from Indiana, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Virginia and West Virginia, with perfect grades and generally pro-gun populations. They could break from the Democratic side.
Garland’s record, while not the stuff of legends, shows a hardworking jurist who is generally favorable to existing law and Supreme Court decisions.
However, he supported reconsideration of an earlier court decision knocking down the District of Columbia’s gun laws, which were later ruled unconstitutional in the Heller case. In 2000, he ruled in favor of then-Attorney-General Janet Reno in NRA v Reno, allowing the FBI to retain information collected from Brady background checks for six months following the original inquiry. The Brady Act required that such information be destroyed as soon as the FBI delivered a decision to the dealer.
So, if McConnell and his gang actually do allow Garland’s nomination to go to a vote, there is a good chance Garland won’t be confirmed.
Considering that the GOP appears to be imploding, chances are good the Democrats will regain control of the Senate while hanging on to the White House.
It might be a better idea to let the GOP posture and obstruct and then confirm Garland in January 2017.