There is a delegate counter where anyone can set the win-loss for each remaining state and see for themselves how Hillary and Bernie fare in winning delegates.
It’s fun! Everyone should try it. Just put in the win-loss results you expect. Try it yourself and post your results in the comments.
I played around with a few scenarios. This is the one that seems most convincing.
I gave Hillary:
- 2% (51% — 49%) in every closed primary.
That’s it. From here on out she narrowly wins only the closed primaries. Nothing else.
I gave Sanders:
- 30% blow-outs (65% to 35%) in every remaining caucus
- 30% blow-outs (65% to 35%) in every remaining open primary
- 30% blow-outs (65% to 35%) in every remaining semi-open primary
Even under settings that are absurdly favorable to Sanders Hillary still wins by 21 delegates.