NV-03: Wealthy perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian is out with a March survey from Chariot LLC (whom we’ve never heard of before now) that shows him ahead in the June GOP primary for this competitive seat. They give Tarkanian 37 percent of the vote, far ahead of gun-obsessed Assemblywoman Michele Fiore’s 9; GOP establishment favorite Michael Roberson, who serves as state Senate majority leader, is all the way back at 7.
However, as Jon Ralston argues, this poll isn’t necessarily great news for Tarkanian. Roberson isn’t particularly well known right now, but he has the money and big-named support to get his name out in the next few months. By contrast, 93 percent of voters say they recognize Tarkanian, so he probably doesn’t have much room to grow. However, the poll also shows that about half of primary voters recognize Fiore but she’s not well-liked, and she doesn’t have much money. Roberson’s hope (and Team Blue’s fear) is that Fiore will take some far-right voters from Tarkanian and allow the more-formidable Roberson to take the nomination with a plurality. If Fiore and former conservative think tank president Andy Martin (who barely appears to have registered in this survey) doesn’t vacuum up too much support, it’ll make things much easier for Tarkanian and Democrats.
Ralston also notes that Tarkanian usually polls well at the beginning of the race thanks to his name recognition from his last losing campaign, but his support drops once he gets attacked. Maybe this time will be different of course, and at the very least, Tarkanian will force Roberson to dip into his warchest. Democrats have their own primary between national party favorite Jacky Rosen and attorney Jesse Sbaih.