There remain not two (Clinton v. Trump), but FIVE possibilities in this quite odd presidential election year. Anyone who thought this was going to be a Clinton v. Bush rematch should leave the room. Anyone who thinks they know math and concludes the Dem race is over, leave the room. Anyone who thinks they know what will happen in November, I suggest prayer.
(This will never get on the rec list because I have no mojo.)
Disregard what the MSN tells you. They never get it right.
Scenario One: This is the current thinking, that the GOP will nominate Donald, and the Dems will nominate Hillary. Hillary wins (I’m a Bernie supporter.) Trump simply does not have enough of a base to win the the General, which is why the GOP is checking itself into rehab, or is halfway through its fifteen stages of denial. Even IF there were enough Bernie supporters in Swing States to go rogue (those would be about seven states out of 48 winner-take-all states), it won’t help Trump.
Scenario Two: This is the second most likely outcome. Sanders wins the elected delegate count, and the super delegates fall in line. Same result as if Hillary wins and faces Trump, except Bernie’s landslide is larger than Hillary’s.
Scenario Three: Hillary or Sanders, but the GOP Convention, a week before the Dem Convention, turns into a riot. Trump comes in with less than 50% of the delegates, and a brokered convention throws up a Third Guy. I hear Mitt Romney is in the running. Chaos ensues. In which case, Trump goes 3rd Party, which I’ll dub the Drumph Party or whatever. In which case, the Dem candidate wins by a major delegate landslide.
Scenario Four: Trump wins, but the Democratic Convention is chaos as the super delegates steal the election and give it to Hillary, over Sanders’ elected delegate advantage. Chaos ensues. The Sanders’ group puts him on all 50 states’ ballots. The House decides, in which chaos ensues.
Scenario Five: Perfect Storm. Both the Republican and Democratic establishments are upended by split Conventions, making for a FOUR-WAY contest never seen before in US history. It that mathematically or politically possible? Yes, it is. We are witnessing, perhaps, yet another upheaval of the status quo in America. It’s happened before. We actually gave women the right to vote, by Constitutional Amendment. We actually fought each other over slavery, We actually made liquor illegal, and changed our minds, by Constitutional amendment, which is really hard.
In which case, it goes to the House. Chaos ensues.
In closing, let me say I am biased in that Trump cannot win in the General. Not. Going. To. Happen. Not under any scenario above.
The Democrats will retain the White House, even in a four-horse race. (Unless it’s thrown to the House of Representatives, in which case, also, too, chaos.) BECAUSE: If the House calls the race against the plurality, see comment above about chaos.
There are two scenarios which work for a smooth election: Either Bernie or Hillary against Trump, with no tricks at the conventions. Less than that, the advanced math says we are in for a ride.
May you live in exciting times. Oh, wait, you do.