Many commentators here, including Kos, and elsewhere, treat the nomination as a straight-line race. This is incorrect. It is a series of races, with each one given a weighted score (number of delegates).
So you can’t just treat this like a horse race, which is a single track. You can’t even compare it to the Triple Crown, which is three races. It’s more like a series of varied automotive races. Except for this year’s GOP nomination, which I’ll compare to a series of demolition derbies, tractor pulls and monster truck jumps.
On the Democratic side, we have everything from Kart Racing (let that be the caucuses) Stock Car (say most primaries) to Formula (Indy-style, the most expensive). Being biased, I’ll say California is the Off-Road race known as the Baja 1000, because way long. These are all Wiki links.
Why would I use this analogy? Well, as I said, this is a series of races, not one, with various skill levels required for each type of race. In reality, you would never ask a race car driver to compete across the field. But that’s what we have in the presidential nominating process. And since the genres of race events are spread out, we can’t assume the leader at the mid-point will win. If it’s close at the end, it will come down to the grueling Baja 1000 (which is only 800 miles over godfersaken terrain).
Now if you’re a typical race car fan and are watching the Democratic contests, you’re missing out on the flaming, metal-crushing spectacle of the Republican pileup.
But if you are a more refined enthusiast of the sport, the Democratic Event is far more intellectually rewarding.
We know that Hillary Clinton started with the most experienced pit crews money could buy, and that Bernie Sanders started with a few guys who were still milling their own engine blocks for small town drag races. To combat the overwhelming sponsorship advantage, Sanders basically crowd-funded his way into the Bigs.
At this point, we know that Bernie does well in the Kart Racing, while Hillary holds the lead in Stock Car. Some times Bernie pulls a win out of these races, because his gear-heads took his VW and went nuts.
And then we come to the states with the biggest delegate hauls: California is by far the largest, and the last big race on the calendar. If it comes to the Golden State, each team’s pit crews will have to re-tool for Unlimited Class competition. Polling is out-of-date, so this June contest is up for grabs. Second in delegate hauls is Texas, a Formula One Class race that Hillary’s team won handily. Next is New York, also a Hillary favorite. Then comes Florida, also a Hillary favorite with its Sebring racetrack.
In today’s races, the early results have Hillary winning the stock car race in Mississippi handily, and Sanders leading in a close contest for the larger Michigan rubber-burner.
And that’s how this looks to me, like a series of disparate car races.
Or in the case of the Republicans, a waste of metal and gears.