There will certainly be a lot of diaries between now and June 08th declaring that the Democratic nomination race is not over and Bernie Sanders still has a chance until the last vote is counted. There will likely also be some diaries that will continue to argue that Bernie has a chance of gaining the nomination up to and including the convention and the counting of the delegates.
That is reality.
However, it is also reality to accept that the race is in fact over. Hillary Clinton has secured a large enough lead in the delegates (both super and real) and holds very comfortable majorities in all the major races remaining that even if her support collapsed, she would still win. Basically, Hillary would have to lose every single remaining state by better than 43%/58% to Bernie, just for him to break even.
Reality: That is not going to happen. Further, once the race is in fact finished and the last vote counted; no super delegates are going to switch from Clinton to Sanders if she has both the majority of pledged delegates and votes. In fact, it is more likely that those supers who are currently supporting Sanders, will switch to Clinton.
This isn’t ball spiking; it is reality.
What is also reality is the Republican race is also reaching its conclusion. While the question of who will be the nominee is not quite as certain as it is for Democrats, it is certainly either going to be Donald Trump or Ted Cruz. Personally, my money is on Trump. He has very comfortable leads in the next series of states, he should perform well in California and Ted Cruz’s brand of conservatism only really plays well in the mid-west. I think that faced with a ultra-conservative lunatic or an outspoken racist, misogynistic fascist, most “moderate” Republicans will choose the fascist. Time will tell. But until evidence suggests otherwise, I expect it to be Trump.
So, with that out of the way, what is the real question now going forward?
Contrary to the debates currently being made, it not a question of should Bernie stay in the race or should Hillary offer him some cabinet post to make him drop out. That is something that will be decided by the candidates, their campaigns and their egos. Right now, the rubric for each voter is “what can I live with?”
It isn’t a case of “YOU MUST VOTE FOR X OR Y WILL GET IN!!!” The response to that has always been “That’s your problem, not mine.” It is actually a case of “Can I live with X being President for the next four or eight years?”
Every NON-Republican voter now has a simple question that only they can answer: “Can I live with Trump being President?” If they feel that they can, then they either don’t vote or vote for a symbolic candidate. Inversely, every NON-Democratic voter has to ask themselves “Can I live with Clinton being President?” If the answer is no, then they will vote for Trump to sit in the White House for the next four years.
The point is; the question is never “can I vote for X?” Regardless of what we do or don’t do our actions determine the result. If you do vote for X and that person wins, your vote helped secure a victory. If you don’t vote for X and that person loses, your not voting help secure a defeat. Ultimately, what matters to the individual is “what happens to me if the other person gets in?”
There are many on both sides of the aisles who have said that they absolutely cannot vote for Trump or cannot vote for Clinton. There have been posts all over the internet from voters saying “I will only vote for Trump if Clinton is the nominee” or “I will only vote for Clinton to stop Trump.” These people are being disingenuous. What they are really saying is “I can live with a Trump Presidency but not a Clinton one” and vice/versa. Those who say “I will not vote for either” are actually saying “I will do nothing to stop either from winning.” In the latter case, that is usually because they have determined that they could reasonably live with either President Trump or President Clinton.
All the arguments and debates do not change that simple equation: Can you live with President Trump, or President Clinton being in the Oval Office for the next four years? If you are a traditional Democratic voter but believe that you can live with a President Trump but do not feel you could do so under a President Clinton, you have made your choice. You don’t have to vote for Trump but so long as you don’t vote for Clinton, you are helping him win and her lose. The opposite is also true for traditional Republican voters.
It is a question each will answer depending on their own circumstances, level of self interest and involvement.
Choose Wisely.