It’s the Bataan Death March.
- An unnamed former White House (or Clinton) aide.
That’s the quote that Maureen Dowd provides in her Sunday Op-Ed “Weakened at Bernie’s”. The Hillary campaign has been humorless, desperate, and discouraging. In the recent ABC/Wall Street Journal poll, 59% of respondents viewed her as dishonest/untrustworthy. Since she polled at 44% compared to Trump, that means roughly 20% of her supporters view her as untrustworthy, but will still support her for president. Her numbers on trust were equivalent to Trump’s. This race has seen her favorability numbers plummet. Despite making her campaign pitch to partisans in state after state, her numbers continue to decline. The more she has campaigned, the worse her numbers have become.
I read Kos’s 11 Reasons on the Front Page. I agree with some of them. Bernie is where he is right now because he couldn’t connect with Black or Hispanic voters, especially in the South. That’s a huge failing for a Democratic candidate, and it’s especially frustrating because Sanders supports policies that would radically improve the lives of many POC throughout the country.
But let’s talk about where Hillary is right now. After fighting like hell since January to put Bernie away, she hasn’t. Bernie will walk into the Philly Convention with something like 45% of the pledged delegates. He will likely get a win in CA, and a narrow loss in NJ, despite having no mathematical way of winning the nomination. Her poll numbers against Trump are slipping, which is hopefully only because of the ongoing nomination fight. Because otherwise, that’s not a good sign at all.
Kos claims that Hillary’s support right now is a floor. If this campaign is similar to every other campaign that Hillary has ever run, it’s probably a ceiling. Hillary has never increased the percentage of her support among voters. This MSNBC segment provides a good review, but needless to say, against Lazio and Spencer, Hillary’s ceiling was her initial polling numbers. Against President Obama, her ceiling was her initial polling numbers. Against Sanders, her ceiling was her initial polling numbers. Yes, she’s well known, and maybe that’s why her numbers don’t increase. Or, maybe she’s a terrible candidate who, despite her wonkiness, can’t run an effective campaign.
Imagine, for a minute, that you’re watching a bike race. Two riders pull up to the starting line. One rider has a new, carbon-fiber Cervelo bicycle. Unbeknownst to the crowd, her blood is oxygenated and there’s a small motor whirring away near the back axle. She’s got everything she needs to win. The other rider has a 1970, aluminum frame, 12-speed Schwinn. He’s wheezing a little as he pulls to the line.
Now, flash forward to the finish line. The Cervelo is approaching the finish line in first place. Unless she falls, it’s her race to win. But, the guy on the Schwinn is within sight. In fact, he’s the kept the Cervelo in sight the entire race. Who has really “won” this race? Who would you take to ride in the next race? Would you put the Cervelo rider back on the same bike? I think you’d take the rider on the Schwinn, give him the Cervelo, and let him ride the next race. It’s risky. But, isn’t it equally risky to ignore the obvious warning signs that the first rider is no good?
Here’s the mood that Ms. Dowd summarizes in her column:
Hopeful acceptance of Hillary has shifted to amazed disbelief that she can’t put away Bernie. Given dynasty fatigue and Hillary’s age, many Democrats assumed that their front-runner would come out of the gate with a vision for the future that gave her campaign a fresh hue, instead of white papers tinkering around the edges. She should have been far over her husband’s bridge to the 21st century and way down the highway by now.
So here’s the thing. I’m a Bernie supporter. I do not like Secretary Clinton because I do not trust a single policy position she takes. I will vote for Secretary Clinton in the general, but I’ve no incentive to work for her campaign in any way. My friends include independents and Democrats that probably won’t vote for her. They’re not going to listen to the typical Clinton arguments on DK presented day-in and day-out. They want to know that a vote for Hillary will result in the achievement of some tangible policy success, and they need some outside assurance that Hillary’s promise to try to achieve that policy can be trusted.
I don’t think Hillary can deliver a GE win. I think she won’t be able to hold on to the level of support that she has now. I think this is her ceiling. I think when she campaigns, she loses support rather than gains it. And, I’m not sure a race to the bottom campaign is something she can ever win. We need to either roll the dice and nominate Bernie (and I know just how painful that will be to the party) or the Hillary campaign needs to do something to change the dynamic of her terrible campaign.
Update, May 23, 2016, 9:04 ET: I changed the title to remove reference to the Bataan Death March after a very thoughtful comment below. I apologize if having this quote from an Obama staffer in the title may have inadvertently minimized the real suffering of the men and women who were Japanese POWs on Bataan.