Some great news to wake up to this morning:
Washington (CNN)
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump across the board in a new poll of battleground states.
According to Ballotpedia's battleground poll, Clinton leads Trump:
- 51% to 37% in Florida
- 45% to 41% in Iowa
- 50% to 33% in Michigan
- 48% to 38% in North Carolina
- 46% to 37% in Ohio
- 49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
- 45% to 38% in Virginia
www.cnn.com/…
Johnson being included in the poll doesn’t significantly affect her margin of victory.
It’s a poll that uses a good methodology, landlines and cell phones. Not the questionable land-line only polls or online-polls.
The Ballotpedia poll was conducted among active registered voters via land lines and cell phones from June 10-22, much longer than the usual 3-5 days for a statewide poll. Interviewers reached 596 respondents in Florida, 601 in Iowa, 612 in Michigan, 603 in North Carolina and 601 in Pennsylvania, all with a margin of error of plus-or-minus four points. The poll also reached 617 registered voters in Ohio and 612 in Virginia, each with a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.9 points.
www.politico.com/…
Now, is it 100% guaranteed she is up that much in these states? No, but it’s possible and it helps average out the low-end of swing state polls, like Q-pac ones that dropped today.
In your average US election, you are supposed to have polls across the margin of error. If a candidate is really winning by 5 points, you shouldn’t have ten polls all showing a +5 race, but rather you should have some polls showing a tie, and others showing it +10.
But, no matter how you look at it, these are good results and you should just enjoy looking at them.
Update
Nate Silver and his team on Twitter say they see no reason to discount the poll. In particular, Nate says that in a 7%-Clinton lead environment these polls aren't even outliers with the Margin of Error. Another person on his team said that other swing state polls have had long response times and no one objected, probably because the results were a tight race. Furthermore, they believe the polling firm is a perfectly fine organization.