I see a lot of people spit-balling all kinds of fanciful predictions about new positions of power for their preferred Senators in the likely event that we re-take control of the US Senate in November.
I love the recognition that Party Leadership and Committee Chairs are key cogs in the policy making and breaking machine, but there seems to be a disconnect with what people know and don’t know about how this works.
But much of the jockeying for position in the US is preordained. People do not just step aside or jump ahead because of how popular they are on the stump or Meet the Press. All Senators are EQUAL and report only to their own constituents. They assemble within their party Caucus and select their own leaders by their own rules by which they all agree to abide.
To wit: Elizabeth Warren is not suddenly going to be the Chair of the Finance Committee because she is clearly loved by a key constituency of the party. No amount of wishing, petition signing or donation withholding is going to make that happen: a) She is currently 42nd in seniority among Democrats b) She has said she is not submitting her name for a leadership role and c) She’s not even a MEMBER of the Finance Committee.
So let’s start with seniority, or as it is formally known in the Senate: Order of Service.
Order of Service
Order of service is based on the commencement of the senator's first term. Behind this is former service as a senator (only giving the senator seniority within his or her new incoming class), service as Vice President, a House member, a Cabinet Secretary, or a governor of a state. The final factor is the population of the senator's state.
So this means Russ Feingold will be the most senior member of his incoming class, but it DOES NOT mean he rockets back up to the top to join his former 1992-election classmate Patty Murray.
Here is the current list of seniority.
Committee Chairs
There are 15 Standing Senatorial Committees, all of which are either Class A or Class B assignments.
Oh right, classes:
Senate committees are divided, according to relative importance, into three categories: Class A, Class B, and Class C. Individual Senators are in general limited to service on two Class A committees and one Class B committee. Assignment to Class C committees is made without reference to a member's service on any other panels.
All the Standing Committees are Class A or Class B but lets not worry about membership; let’s focus on chairs. Also, aside from the membership rule above, there is a hard-and-fast rule that no senator can chair more than one standing committee. Period. So while Patrick Leahy technically out-ranks EVERYONE (both in seniority and general bad-assedness, IMO) he has made clear his choice of chairing the Judiciary Committee and therefore foregoes his seniority on every other committee on which he serves. Which usually always gives him the 2nd position behind the Chair/Ranking Member.
Lastly, it is a tradition, particularly among Democrats, that the Democratic Leader does not sit, even as a member, much less a chair, of ANY committee. Harry Reid oversees the chamber’s agenda and manages parliamentary strategy to pass or block legislation. He sits on no committee and attends no committee meetings or mark-up sessions.
Current Ranking Members
Under GOP control every chair is, if course, currently a Republican. With the former Pre-2014 Democratic Chair now becoming the “Ranking Member”. It is important to note that flipping control does not necessarily shuffle leadership. Prior to 2014 Patrick Leahy chaired the Judiciary and Chuck Grassley was Ranking Member. Post-2014 that is now simply reversed but they are still the top ranked Senator from their respective parties.
Here are our current Ranking Members
- Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry: Debbie Stabenow (MI)
- Appropriations: Barbara Mikulski (MD)
- Armed Services: Jack Reed (RI)
- Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs: Sherrod Brown (OH)
- Budget: Bernie Sanders (VT)
- Energy and Natural Resources: Maria Cantwell (MN)
- Environment and Public Works: Barbara Boxer (CA)
- Finance: Ron Wyden (OR)
- Foreign Relations: Ben Cardin (MD)
- Health, Education, Labor & Pensions: Patty Murray (WA)
- Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs: Tom Carper (DE)
- Judiciary: Patrick Leahy (VT)
- Rules and Administration: Chuck Schumer (NY)
- Small Business and Entrepreneurship: Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
- Veterans Affairs: Richard Blumenthal (CT)
Projected Post-2016 Chairs
We can make a few determinations right off the bat, by common sense and what has already been announced.
1. Patrick Leahy will resume his Chairmanship of the Judiciary. Sure as the day you were born.
2. It has already been made clear that Patty Murray will be replacing retiring Senator Barbara Mikulski as Chairwoman of Appropriations, what is widely considered to be the most powerful Chair in the Senate. Not only has Ms. Mikulski endorsed this, but it was made known when Chuck Schumer became the consensus replacement pick for Reid as Majority leader. Murray and Durbin were the only ones with the standing to challenge him on this and each of them stood down. Durbin will continue as co-leader and whip, Murray will take this plum spot.
3. Sherrod Brown has spoken many times, and as recently as yesterday, about his intentions to chair the Banking Committee. To this end, the Hillary campaign had reached out to him and worked with him to craft most of her banking reform policy proposals. A wise move that should pay dividends when he becomes the key senator to passing any/all of it in the Upper Chamber of Congress and finds himself advocating for bills and proposals he himself wrote.
4. Jack Reed is an Army veteran having served in the 82nd Airborne retiring with the rank of Major and will be the 6th most senior Democrat in the Senate. I can not fathom a scenario, however remotely hypothetical, that would see him abandon his claim and current standing to resume chairmanship of the Armed Services Committee.
5-9. Likewise, but with perhaps less over-whelming obviousness, there is nothing to indicate that the following ranking members would be interested in relinquishing their posts: Debbie Stabenow for Agriculture, Maria Cantwell for Energy, Ron Wyden for Finance, Jeanne Shaheen for Small Business and Richard Blumenthal for Veteran’s Affairs.
So that’s 9 out of 15 chairs that have no uncertainty or speculation around them.
After that, we have to plot out a few moves.
10. Chuck Schumer will remove himself from the Rules Committee so in theory that should go to the next most senior senator: Dianne Feinstein. However, Rules is usually held by someone within Caucus Leadership to assist the leader with any parliamentary efforts. Which is why we see Schumer dutifully filling this spot for Harry Reid. If Feinstein wants to assume that role and get involved with Caucus strategy and oppositional tactics, she’s positioned to do it. If she passes, it would go to Dick Durbin is more than able and plenty willing.
11-14. Which brings us to the Environment Committee. Barbara Boxer is retiring. The next most senior senator is Tom Carper, but to take the chair of Environment he would have to relinquish Homeland Security. Environmental laws are not looming issues for Delaware like they are for California so I don’t see him making this trade for constituent reasons. So he is expected to pass. The next person in line is Ben Cardin of Maryland, but what was true for Carper and Homeland would go double for Ben Cardin and his prestigious post as Chairman of Foreign Relations. He too is expected to stand down on the Environment. And that brings us to our old friend, Bernie Sanders.
Bernie could take over the Environment and Public Works Committee as a platform from which to advance his fight for Climate Change law. But he would have to relinquish his chair of the Budget Committee. Now Budget is a Class B committee, Environment is Class A, but I don’t think that matters to Sanders. It would be about what best fit his goals and agenda.
And here is the interesting twist: If Bernie passes on Environment and keeps Budget, then the next in line is Sheldon Whitehouse and he would definitely take the chair. But if Sanders takes the Environment Chair then the Budget chair goes down the line: 2nd is Wyden; nope he’s already chairing Finance. 3rd is Stabenow, sorry… she’s already set on Agriculture. 4th is Murray and she’s out of the running since she is ruling the mighty Appropriations committee, so 5th is….. Sheldon Whitehouse.
So suffice it to say that due to the retirement of Barbara Boxer, the Committees of Environment and Budget will be run by Bernie Sanders and Sheldon Whitehouse with the junior senator of Vermont getting to decide which is which. Except….
14. Bernie Sanders is not a man without options. You see, Patty Murray currently heads up the Health, Education, Labor and Pension Committee and she will be handing that over to fill Milkulski’s shoes in Appropriations. Ironically, the 2nd ranked member is Barbara Mikulski herself, who will be gone. And Sanders is right there feeling the burn in the 3rd slot. The committee overseeing Healthcare (Universal?) Education (Tuition and School Loans?) Labor and Pensions! Must be tempting for Sanders…. If he passes on this one, it would go to Bob Casey of Pennsylvania.
Decisions, decisions…..He can only have one.
So 11 Chairs are pretty much already locked down. Feinstein has a decision to make on Rules, but its either her or Durbin, so that’s 12.
The other 3 are really all up to Senator and former Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders.
If Bernie keeps his spot on Budget, Environment goes to Whitehouse and Health goes to Casey.
If Bernie chooses Environment, Budget goes to Whitehouse and Health goes to Casey
If Bernie chooses Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, then Whitehouse has his pick between Budget and Environment.
If Whitehouse picks Budget, Environment goes to Tom Udall of New Mexico; if Whitehouse opts for Environment, then Budget goes to Mark Warner of Virginia.
Wednesday, Jun 8, 2016 · 9:58:17 PM +00:00
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Wisper
There is another group of committees. The “Special” and “Select” committees. One particularly note I want to make on these is the Select Committee on Ethics. This has no membership restrictions and can be chaired by ANYONE irrespective of other positions.
The current ranking Democrat is Barbara Boxer, so this too will need to be re-filled. Typically the only Senators out of the running would be Schumer, Durbin and Murray. We don’t want caucus leadership heading up Ethics investigations.
My pick for this spot? Al Franken