In this piece posted at 5 AM this morning, we learn
Hillary Clinton is crushing Donald Trump among college-educated white voters, a group Mitt Romney easily won in 2012 and one his Republican Party has carried in presidential contests for decades.
White voters with at least a college degree—a group that represented more than a third of the 2012 electorate—back Clinton over Trump 48 percent to 37 percent, the latest Purple Slice online poll for Bloomberg Politics shows. Romney won that group by 14 percentage points, according to exit polls.
We see similar patterns when we look more deeply:
- Among ALL likely voters with college degree or more, CLinton leads 54-32, among a group representing 47% of electorate in 2012, and which Obama only carried by 2 points.
- Among those with a graduate degree Clinton leads by 61 percent to 27 percent.
Perhaps that is why Trump told us that he loves poorly educated voters?
The article also reminds us of this:
Since 1952, no Democratic presidential candidate has won college-educated whites, according to American National Election Studies data and exit polls reported by the Atlantic.
Given that the likelihood of voting increases with the amount of education one has, what is in these numbers should greatly concern Republicans and be of a fair amount of cheer to Democrats, at least as far as the Presidential race goes.
I will note, as a resident of Northern Virginia, that even with an increasing immigrant population, we tend to be fairly well educated, which may be why Trump did so poorly in our area in the Republican primary. We also represent an increasing proportion of the vote in the Old Dominion. Putting this together, it is one reason that I think Virginia is off the table for Trump, which means he probably would have to win both FL and OH to have any path to 270 electoral votes, and the recent polling seems to indicate that FL is moving out of his reach.
The article provides a link to the complete poll including methodology, etc. There is also a wealth of information on topics about which voters were polled. You will find, for example, how positive this demographic’s attitudes are towards President Obama.
Let me offer three paragraphs of that information which helps to explain why Trump is in such a hole with educated voters:
College-educated voters pick Clinton over Trump, 62 percent to 22 percent, when asked who they think will be the next president, regardless of whom they personally support.
Among other potential Trump vulnerabilities tested, 58 percent of college-educated voters are deeply troubled that he has proposed tax cuts for those who make more than $1 million a year.
More than half, 56 percent, said they were bothered “a lot” by Trump University, his for-profit real estate investment school that's been accused in lawsuits and by state officials of misleading students. That same percentage were that concerned about his suggestion that Mexican immigrants are “bringing drugs, they're bringing crime, they're rapists.”
Looking at this data, some of what we are seeing in the video ads from the Clinton campaign make a great deal of success.
Next week is the Republican convention. We are overdue for a speakers list. Major names are staying away. There is concern about disruption outside, particularly given that Ohio is an open carry state. Normally a nominee gets a “bump” in the polls from the convention. I suppose if Trump does not drool and can stay away from the more outrageous of his statements for a week, a lot of the punditry — who want a real race — will proclaim that he has made the pivot and we will see such a bump.
One other thing to keep in mind. It is my understanding that Trump has agreed to address the national convention of the NAACP. That is tentatively scheduled for Wednesday, the day before he would make his acceptance speech. Remembering his speech to AIPAC, I wonder what he will say and what kind of impact it will have, what kind of coverage it will generate?
Most reading here fall into the demographic represented by the poll discussed in this post. We need to be cautious in extrapolating from our own experience — this can be a bit of an echo chamber. Nevertheless, this poll seems to be yet another piece of information that points ever more clearly to a Clinton win, one probably by a pretty solid margin.