There is quite a bit of hand-wringing about the new Quinnipiac polls out today from Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I’ll note that Quinnipiac’s primary polls had a lean against Clinton but are considered an A- pollster by 538. However, the good news today is a new poll by Monmouth, an A+ rated pollster by 538, that shows Clinton with a huge 13 point lead in Colorado.
It seems to me that both Quinnipiac and Monmouth cannot both be right at that same time. If Clinton is truly up by 13 in Colorado, it seems highly unlikely she would be doing so poorly in PA, FL and OH.
On the other hand, if she really is doing that poorly, it seems unlikely that she would have a 13 point lead in Colorado. Rather, one would expect her to be trailing badly there.
We will definitely need some additional polling to sort out the true picture of the race. However, since we are going into the conventions over the next two weeks with VP picks as well, the polls could be volatile as the various bounces bounce their way through things until they settle down sometime in early August. So keep your hats on!