This may be a matter of simply whistling past the graveyard, but with some disturbing polls coming out of some key swing states recently (Oh, Fl, now CO), I decided to look back at 2012 and see where the swing states of that election cycle stood prior to the election in November (per Real Clear Politics).
www.realclearpolitics.com/...
I limited myself only to polls that were taken AFTER the first debate, where it was widely felt that Romney had basically handed Obama his lunch. This began a nearly month’s-long surge in the polls (both national and state) for the former governor of Massachusetts. (This also seems like a comparable “bad news cycle” to the one Clinton is — wrongly, I believe - in right now).
So what was Obama’s lead like in the swing states in the approximately four weeks between that debate and the election?
Well, in some states (IA, PA, OH, NV, NH), he maintained a slim but consistent lead, but in three of the swing states (VA, CO, FL), things were not nearly so clear-cut.
VIRGINIA
In the 20 last polls in Virginia, Romney led in exactly half of them, 10 out of 20, yet Obama wound up winning the state by a near 4-point margin.
COLORADO
In the last 20 polls in Colorado, Romney led in 9 of them. Obama won the state by 5.4%.
FLORIDA
In the last 25 polls, Romney led in a whopping 18 (!) of them, a number by a 5, 6 and even 7 point margin. In fact, of the remaining 7 polls, some were ties and Obama led by only 1 point in all but one (a 2-pointer). Yet, on election day, Obama carried the state by an admittedly narrow .9% margin. But, hey, a win is a win is a win.
I guess my point is that we should be expecting some of the polls in battleground states to show Trump winning occasionally, but it is certainly not an indication that he will likely win those states on election day.