I swear quite a bit online (more than I should). When Topher Spiro of the Center for American Progress starts swearing, you know he’s furious:
With all the talk about pre-existing conditions the past few weeks, it’s important to remember that the “new” version of the “American Health Care Act” (aka AHCA or Trumpcare) is just as awful as the prior versions, and in fact even WORSE.
It’s worse because while it technically keeps pre-existing conditions covered, it gives states the option to drop those protections...as well as to let carriers charge insane amounts to cover them, or to drop essential health benefits. Basically, whatever the hell they want to do, and all it takes is a waiver request...which would be automatically approved by default unless HHS Sec. Tom Price actively denied the request.
DON’T FORGET WHAT ELSE THE TRUMPCARE BILL WOULD DO (courtesy of former CMS Administrator Andy Slavitt; sources include the CBO, Kaiser Family Foundation, Commonwealth Fund, Urban Institute, CAP and Gallup:
Here, again, are the best estimates from myself and/or the Center for American Progress for…
UPDATE: I see there’s a bit of a discussion in the comments about whether I’m being “too alarmist” with all the “red alert!” stuff, because if you overdo that it starts to cause a bit of a “boy who cried wolf” effect. I get that, really.
At the same time, this really is an “all hands on deck” situation. As reported in Politico, it looks like Ryan considers this week to be the GOP’s Last Chance:
House Republican leaders and White House officials are increasingly confident about passing their long-stalled Obamacare replacement bill: More lawmakers than ever are committed to voting “yes," they say, and GOP insiders insist they’re within striking distance of a majority.
But the window of opportunity for Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team is closing fast. The House is scheduled to leave town for a one-week recess on Thursday, and some senior Republicans worry that failing to get it done by then would fritter away critical momentum. Skittish Republicans would return home to face a barrage of pressure from Democrats and progressive outside groups.
In addition to the momentum/scheduling factors, there’s also something else that’s important to keep in mind: The insurance carriers are very quickly losing patience with Trump and the GOP, especially regarding the Cost Sharing Reduction (CSR) issue. Humana has already bailed the entire individual market in 2018, Anthem is threatening to drop out of at least the on-exchange market, and Molina is taking it one step further by threatening to kick up to 700,000 people off their current policies IMMEDIATELY if CSR reimbursements aren’t guaranteed by the GOP (and by “immediately” I mean potentially as soon as the end of May).
The insurance carriers have a deadline of no later than June 21st to decide whether they’ll be on the exchanges next year in most states, and even earlier than that in some (California’s deadline is tomorrow, I believe). After that, they can still drop out if they wish, but they can’t jump in except under special circumstances, I believe (in reality, some carriers suddenly popped in or out of the exchanges right up until October the past couple of years, so I’m not sure how “hard” these deadlines really are).
My point is that very soon, any healthcare bill with the GOP manages to pass simply wouldn’t be able to go into effect at all until January 2019 at the very earliest, no matter what, for whatever that’s worth.
On the other hand, they seem to still be utterly obsessed with cramming SOMETHING through the House no matter what the consequences and no matter how little the odds of getting it through the Senate are:
If GOP leaders don’t hold the vote soon, they’re bound to face internal pressures as well. Meadows told reporters Friday that while he hopes the current version passes, he’s readying a Plan B “backup” repeal bill if the legislation fails.
“I don’t think [the bill] has to be voted on next week, [but] I certainly would be extremely disappointed if it weren’t,” Meadows said, later adding: “We’re going to vote on something.”
That last line says it all. “We’re going to vote on SOMETHING.” Anything. Doesn’t matter what it does, who it hurts, how insane it is; they’re going to vote on SOMETHING.
Finally, it’s important to note that “Red Alert!” doesn’t mean “panicking”. It simply means that, like the episode “33” of Battlestar Galactica, the never-ending Cylon attacks is on once again:
Having fled the besieged Ragnar Anchorage, the convoy of refugee spaceships is relentlessly pursued and attacked by Cylon Basestars. The colonial fleet must execute a faster-than-light (FTL) jump every 33 minutes to escape the Cylons, who consistently arrive at the new jump coordinates approximately 33 minutes later. After over 130 hours and 237 jumps, the fleet's crew and passengers, particularly those aboard Galactica, have been operating without sleep while facing the strain of nearly constant military action.
The Republicans are relentless and tireless about tearing apart the ACA (and everything else)...so we have to be equally relentless about it. If we manage to stop this latest attack, we may gain a reprieve for awhile...or perhaps not.
In the meantime, the threat is real and immediate. Please keep calling, thanks.