Nevada Sen. Dean Heller is one of the few vulnerable Republican incumbents facing re-election next year, and pollster JMC Analytics’ first released survey of the GOP primary shows he isn’t just facing a dire threat in the general election, but in the primary too. JMC’s recent poll finds Heller actually losing renomination to perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian by a 39-31 spread, while Heller’s favorable rating is a pitiful 34 percent and lower than his 48 percent favorable rating among Republicans. The pollster did not appear to release any general election numbers if they surveyed them, but Heller’s in terrible shape if this latest release is anywhere near accurate.
Tarkanian kicked off his campaign against Heller in early August over the latter’s insufficient adherence to party orthodoxy, but the wealthy businessman has repeatedly lost general elections for congressional and state-level races. That includes last year, when he upset the party establishment’s preferred candidate in the primary for the open 3rd Congressional District only to narrowly lose the general election 47-46 to Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen even as Trump won the suburban Las Vegas-area seat by 48-47. While his unrelenting conservatism has endeared him to the GOP base, it’s a double-edged sword that helps turn off swing voters in the general election, especially when combined with attacks over his awful record in his business career, making him an ideal opponent for Democrats to face.
Seeking to stanch the bleeding, Heller’s campaign pushed back with an internal poll of its own from the Republican firm Tarrance Group, which has him winning by a more comfortable 55-33 spread over Tarkanian. However, for an incumbent with the steadfast support of the Senate leadership, a mere 22-point lead in a primary over a perennial-candidate foe isn’t exactly intimidating to Heller’s critics.
Heller may have just helped seal his own defeat with the way he played his cards during the recent health care debates. Heller publicly opposing key aspects of Trumpcare while ultimately voting both for and against several major variations of the proposed bill, angering both the hard-right base and swing voters. With Tarkanian challenging him from the right in the primary and Rosen running against him in the general, the incumbent can’t afford any missteps if he hopes to become the only Republican senator to win re-election next year in a state that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. However, there’s still a long way to go until next year’s primary and general election, meaning Heller may yet turn things around.