January 4, 2017 by Peter Turchin
Cliodynamics is a new "transdisciplinary discipline" that treats history as just another science. Ten years ago I started applying its tools to the society I live in: the United States. What I discovered alarmed me.
My research showed that about 40 seemingly disparate (but, according to cliodynamics, related) social indicators experienced turning points during the 1970s. Historically, such developments have served as leading indicators of political turmoil. My model indicated that social instability and political violence would peak in the 2020s (see Political Instability May be a Contributor in the Coming Decade).
The presidential election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast. We seem to be well on track for the 2020s instability peak.
[snip]
...Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class. This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions."
[snip]
Another visible sign of increasing intra-elite competition and political polarization is the fragmentation of political parties. The Republican Party is in the process of splitting up into three factions: Traditional Republicans, Tea Party Republicans, and Trump Populists. These divisions run so deep that many Republicans refused to endorse Trump, and some even voted for Clinton. Similar disintegrative forces have also been at work within the Democratic Party, with a major fault line dividing Bernie Sanders' Democratic Socialists from the Establishment Democrats of Obama and Clinton.
Read more at:
phys.org/...
I have been utterly confounded as to why so many Establishment Democrats and their defenders around here have turned their backs on economic progressivism and/or populism and allowed a demagogue and hypocrite like Donald Trump to claim credit for shaming companies to stay in America.
I wondered: why didn’t Obama or the Clintons ever do that?! And it is working! Many companies are scared to outsource for fear of a tweet from The Donald. Where have the Democrats been?
Where have the Democrats been with the bully pulpit? They’ve been coddling certain rich Democratic Party donors, that’s where.
Why were Democrats so quiet on labor unions or on minimum wage when Democrats had a supermajority in 2008? Instead they did Obamacare, and forced millions in the sketchy “individual” health care market to pay private companies money. (And yes there’s good policy in the ACA but the “tax” directly to a private company is so revealing in this discussion….) Why? They’ve been coddling certain rich Democratic Party donors, that’s why.
How is it that Democrats, the Party of the People that brought America the social safety net and championed unionization, came to such a compromised point where f’ing Republicans are shaming the corporate outsourcers?! HOW?! Granted Trump is a bigot, a compulsive liar, a sexist pig and a racist, and this is all a cynical ploy for the Kochs and repub donors, but what if….. what if the new, cynical “Trump populist” wing of the Republican Party bypasses the Establishment dems and repubs altogether and actually start standing up for American jobs? How did we as Democrats get to this point where we are left so utterly exposed as corrupt hypocrites?! I see many Bernie voters going along with Trump the Pussy-grabber because of the corruption.
Dem rich donors vs repub rich donors. Sounds about right to explain the primary wars? Yep.
Establishment Dem voters around here, taking their talking points from the rich dem donor class and wanting to rise up the food chain, like to deflect and downplay on economic policy. But don’t listen to them. These supposed Democrats are as cynical as the Trumper populists, what with their claims that mainstream Democrats espouse “the most liberal economic policy in decades” as their policy and other claptrap, all while it has been business as usual with trade deals and job outsourcing for multinationals and rarely a peep from the bully pulpit. They are only looking out for their wealth. This is all a ploy for them.
The post-2008 Dems’ supermajority? The dem rich pumping their businesses. Now it will be the repub rich pumping their businesses. All the while, we in the 98% fight over the scraps and fight in the streets, apparently peaking in the 2020s.
Around here, now we’ve got the “identity politics” angle to deflect and divide and conquer from the Democrats’ former issue of economic justice but Rev Barner here in NC knows the real issue is an issue of economic justice. Racism, sexism and all the other hate is another vehicle and technique used by the rich.
So to Establishment Dems, I say: stop the hypocrisy and cynical campaign by using division as your vehicle. Stop attacks on Berniecrats because everyone knows what you are doing. You are exposed.
Rich vs rich. Makes sense now?
Happy puppeteering Daily Kos!