Ralph Northam WILL be elected the next Governor of Virginia. While many are sticking to the very safe “2 -2.5%” margin, I’m telling you right now, it will be 4-5%, and maybe more.
Pollsters don’t like going against “conventional wisdom,” because when they are wrong, and they’re almost always wrong, they can say: “We were right there with all the other polls.” Which explains why the polls we’re useless in 2013 & 2014….and 2016.
When no one gave Corey Stewart a chance in the GOP primary, here’s what I posted:
And then…
Now I’m telling you that Ralph Northam will win something like 51-46.5%.
Justin Fairfax and Mark Herring will also win completing the Democratic sweep at the statewide level.
Don’t be shocked if Justin Fairfax wins the biggest margin of the three. You heard it here first.
As far as the Delegate races go, Democrats could flip as many as seven. But my prediction is six.
Here they are:
We easily win the 42nd. All signs point to the GOP going on the defensive, and they hung out Lolita Mancheno-Smoak to dry, with little money. Kathy Tran 54-46%
We win the 2nd with relative ease as well. Jennifer Carroll Foy wins 55 -45%.
13th — To the outside world, this will look like a huge upset, but Danica Roem has run one of the best campaigns I’ve ever seen. Danica wins 52-48%. …..and, fuck Bob Marshall, he’s old news. Key: Win big in all three Manassas Park City precincts. Get 800 votes in Mullen precinct.
67th — Karrie Delaney is in the perfect district to flip Blue, but Jim LeMunyon was not going to go quietly. Even after the recount, Karrie Delaney holds on 50.4 — 49.6%. Key: If Delaney can win Franklin, and Lees Corner precincts, she wins.
32nd -David Reid has run a great campaign, and given the changing district, David Reid pulls off the 51-49% win. If Reid wins the Eagle Ridge precinct, I like his chances.
12th -Young people don’t vote, except for Chris Hurst! Call it the “it” factor, or realize that a GOP incumbent that needs to spend a million dollars in rural Virginia, is in big trouble: Hurst: 51.7 — 48.3%. Key: Big turnout in Montgomery Co. precincts A-2, A-3, F-1, F-2, G-1 & G-2.
31st — We just might take seven, Elizabeth Guzman has run a great campaign, and I don’t think many Latinos love being referred to as MS-13 gang-bangers. She’s spent a million dollars, but two past bankruptcies might keep her from Richmond. Facquier County’s Red Wall will hold for Scott Lingamfelter, and he holds on, barely: 50.6 — 49.4%. Watch the Beville precinct, if Guzman hits 1,000 votes there, she might win. If Guzman keeps it within 1,900 votes in Facquier Co., she wins as well.
Don’t be surprised:
40th — If you would have told me in March that Donte Tanner would raise close to $700K in this race, I would have laughed in your face. We’re an hour past midnight on Election Day, I’m not the one laughing. Tanner has run an amazing race. This might really happen!
51st — Fuck the pundits. This could be the year of the woman in Virginia, if so, Hala Ayala could pull this off. And no...I didn’t see her spending $700K either. Great campaign !!!
72nd — I’ll be honest, this one didn’t come on to my radar until late. I still don’t think it happens, but the fact it got on to my radar tells you something about how Virginia might go this year.
50th — The fact this race will even be close, is another factor convincing it will be quite a year for the Blue team.
21st — In a normal year, Kelly Fowler is lucky to raise $75,000 in this race. She’s well over $300K as we speak.