Republicans, in control of the House, Senate, and White House, or intent on demonstrating to the nation that the only "governance" of which they're capable is what powerful corporate lobbyists do for them—like write tax cuts bills. While much of their focus this week is on getting that bill to popular vote loser Donald Trump's desk, the government will shut down December 22 without intervention. So here we are again, Republicans playing chicken with the whole country at stake, counting on Democrats to bail them out.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) told moderate Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) he'd support passage of legislation by the end of the year to prop up Obamacare insurance markets—so long as she votes for tax reform. That addition, however, puts Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) in a pickle: His members are loath to be seen as bailing out a health care law they hate.
Ryan, meanwhile, green-lighted a short-term spending strategy that funds the Pentagon but does nothing for Democratic priorities — and suggested House members could leave town to try to "jam the Senate" into accepting their bill. But McConnell needs eight Democrats to pass anything, so the House plan is sure to fail in his chamber.
"Right now, they're just headed straight off a cliff," one person familiar with the negotiations said of the House. "[The] Senate's not likely to jump with them."
Making it all more complicated is that tax bill which is all tied up with the spending bill, and which leadership is intent on passing before turning to keep government operating. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) is in a pickle over the fact that the #CorkerKickback apparently designed to secure his vote has been made public. It's possible he wasn't aware that there was a provision inserted that would greatly enhance his personal wealth and that he decided that he was okay with adding $1.5 trillion to the debt after all. His vote now seems to be in question as he desperately tries to save his "principled" face. Collins is facing ramped up pressure back home to vote against it, and ailing Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will not be returning to D.C. before January for votes.
There's a handful of other things out there, as well. Like funding for Children's Health and community health centers that expired 79 days ago, and a FISA reauthorization that's expiring and a refusal—so far—from House conservatives to cough up more funding for disaster relief, which has ratcheted up the fight with Senate leadership. "We've been told time and time again by the speaker and the House leadership that the supplemental's going to be coming, but it never seems to come," says the number two Republican in the Senate, John Cornyn (R-TX). "The can always seems to be kicked down the road. It's a source of more than a little frustration on my part and I think on the entire Texas delegation."
Democrats are still pushing to get a deal for the Dreamers who will be losing their temporary work permits and deportation protections due to actions by Trump, as well as demanding that any increase in defense spending be matched dollar for dollar with domestic spending. As of now, though, the plan for leadership is to ram the tax bill through the House first thing Tuesday, then turn to the spending bill. Presumably, they'll stick around to accept it back from the Senate, but it's House Republicans and they're capable of doing anything. Including screwing over McConnell and Cornyn by dropping a stinker bill on their lap and leaving town. Happy Holidays, everyone.