With repeal of the ACA, it is estimated that 18 to 32 million people will lose healthcare coverage.
We are about to embark on a Most Horrible Experiment.
- The experimental question is “Does expanding healthcare save lives?”
- The intervention group is the US population from 2013 to 2017.
- The control group is the US population before 2013 and after 2017.
- The primary endpoint will be all-cause mortality.
We have an rough idea of what the results might be. A 2014 study in Annals of Internal Medicine showed that RomneyCare saved lives in Massachusetts:
"Reform in Massachusetts was associated with a significant decrease in all-cause mortality compared with the control group .... The number needed to treat was approximately 830 adults gaining health insurance to prevent 1 death per year."
Assuming that the repeal of the ACA leads to 25 million Americans losing healthcare, 1 extra death for each 830 people translates to 30,000 avoidable Americans deaths each year.
Perhaps the results of this Most Horrible Experiment will provide political pressure to move to true universal healthcare.
That is, if the powers-that-be allow the data to be collected.