AZ-Sen, Where Are they Now?: On Friday, Donald Trump created a firestorm by pardoning former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was convicted of criminal contempt of court in July for defying a judicial order to stop detaining suspected undocumented immigrants in violation of their civil rights. A longtime boogeyman in Arizona, the disgraced former sheriff finally lost re-election by a decisive 56-44 to Democrat Paul Penzone last year, but not before overseeing a 24-year reign of terror as the top law-enforcement officer for a county covering three-fifths of the Grand Canyon State’s population.
As the Phoenix New Times recounted in horrifying detail, Arpaio repeatedly racially profiled Latinos and singled them out for both physical and psychological abuse, often dolling out humiliating punishments that courts repeatedly deemed violated the Constitution’s ban on cruel and unusual punishment. Indeed, Arpaio even once referred to the county jail as his own “concentration camp” for immigrants. This record of lawlessness also included illegally targeting journalists and politicians who were critical of his tenure.
This sadistic treatment and the tens of millions of dollars in legal settlements that the county had to pay following lawsuits eventually helped cost Arpaio his job in this normally Republican-leaning county, but the former sheriff became a national superstar of the nativist movement against immigration, making him naturally sympathetic to a president who launched his campaign two years ago by calling Mexican immigrants criminals and rapists.
While Trump’s pardon of a law-enforcement officer who repeatedly broke the law to target immigrants and political foes has dangerous implications for the rule of law more broadly, it specifically now leaves Arpaio free to run for office again next year if he so chooses. Arpaio told the Washington Examiner on Monday that "I could run for mayor [of Phoenix], I could run for legislator, I could run for Senate,” referring to a potential primary against Republican Sen. Jeff Flake. Flake appears especially vulnerable to a primary challenge from the nativist right, since the more libertarian-minded senator long been far more supportive of comprehensive immigration reform, angering this state’s notoriously anti-immigration GOP base.
At 85 years old, an Arpaio candidacy doesn’t seem particularly likely at first glance, and he’s flirted with running for higher office in the past yet never pulled the trigger. However, with nothing to lose and a newfound conservative martyrdom, Arpaio may finally find it too irresistible to run against a Republican incumbent whose insufficient commitment to punishing Latino immigrants runs against every awful thing Arpaio has fought for in his career.
If the poster child for the right-wing nativist movement potentially running against him isn’t enough of a threat, Flake already is facing a looming crisis ahead of next year’s primary with former state Sen. Kelli Ward. A new JMC Analytics poll finds Ward absolutely demolishing Flake by a 47-21 landslide. This survey follows a recent HighGround poll that also showed Ward trouncing Flake 43-28, which was a closer margin, but still awful for an incumbent who is an otherwise rock-solid conservative aside from on immigration.
Despite her reputation for extremism, engagement with conspiracy theories, and weak fundraising, Ward held longtime Sen. John McCain to just a 51-40 primary victory in 2016. Top Republicans including Trump himself have reportedly been eager to search for a stronger challenger to Flake, but if JMC’s reading of his favorable rating at 22 percent and unfavorable at 67 percent is accurate, even Ward may be able to dispatch the despised one-term incumbent. Trump may even ultimately overlook Ward’s flaws due to his hatred of Flake, since he nearly unwittingly endorsed her earlier this month.
Flake’s struggles play right into Democratic hands, since the party would undoubtedly love to face someone as infamously unhinged as Ward. Even if he somehow wins renomination, he could stumble into the general election more badly damaged even beyond the tarnish he’s acquired by supporting the unpopular Trumpcare bill. With Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema likely to jump into the Senate race, Flake’s toxic image increasingly makes Arizona a top-tier pickup opportunity for Democrats next year.