For now—and we should all cross our fingers in hopes it stays this way—there is only a war of words between the leaders of the United States and North Korea. This has all the juvenile resonance of playground bravado. Donald Trump refers to Kim Jong-un as a “madman” and a “rocketman on a suicide mission,” and he threatens to obliterate the entire nation of 26 million. Kim calls Trump "unfit to hold the prerogative of supreme command of a country" and describes him as "a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire."
On Tuesday, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho adds kindling when he labels Trump "mentally deranged and full of megalomania" and describes his insults of Kim an "irreversible mistake making it inevitable" that North Korean missiles will hit the U.S. mainland.
This crescendo of tough-guy talk makes it easy to imagine the guy on this side of the Pacific Ocean tweeting to the guys on the other side: “Go ahead, make my day!”
It’s not the words that give pause, however. If this duo were two guys in a bar calling each other rabid dogs and getting ready to crack heads with beer bottles, what would it matter? Thirty days in the slam for both of them and little harm done.
Words have a way of escalating, however. And the antagonists aren’t on the playground or in a tavern. The weapons at hand aren’t dirt clods or empty bottles of brew. They’re city killers.
There was one small bit of good news today. North Korean authorities said that the 3.4 earthquake detected by China and other nations was natural and not the result of another underground test of Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities as some observers had speculated after seismographs picked up the temblor.
Not that there is any reason to believe Kim plans to stop such tests. In fact, some experts hinted that the latest quake could be an aftershock of the one detected after the Sept. 3 nuclear test that North Korea claimed was triggered by the explosion of a hydrogen bomb. Many scientists were highly skeptical that the bomb tested actually was an H-bomb, but even if not, it showed that North Korea is making progress toward one.
Pyongyang now finds itself in a situation not unlike Israel, which practices “nuclear ambiguity.” Some scientists say North Korea’s missiles aren’t all that capable and that its engineers probably haven’t built nuclear warheads capable of being placed atop them. But does any sane person want to test whether they’re bluffing?
Meanwhile, the United States flew B-1B Lancer bombers escorted by fighter jets in international waters near the North Korean coast Saturday. The Pentagon said this show of force was the farthest U.S. fighters or bombers have flown in the 21st Century north of the demilitarized zone separating North and South Korea for the past 64 years.
"This mission is a demonstration of U.S. resolve and a clear message that the President has many military options to defeat any threat," said Pentagon spokeswoman Dana White, calling North Korea's weapons program "a grave threat."
"We are prepared to use the full range of military capabilities to defend the U.S. homeland and our allies," White said.
Everybody, presumably including Supreme Leader Kim, knows that launching nuclear missiles at U.S. territory or U.S. allies is suicidal. No nation has dropped a nuke in anger since the U.S. obliterated Nagasaki 72 years ago. And over the past 60 years, the reason for that has been obvious. The subsequent slaughter would be immense even if it somehow remained confined to a couple of nations.
All this name-calling and threat-making may be bluster and bluff and chest-thumping performances. It may just be Kim and his lieutenants telling Washington it won’t allow itself to be treated as Iraq and Libya were, and chickenhawk Trump pretending he’s Clint Eastwood brandishing nukes instead of a .44 magnum.
But history shows how overblown rhetoric, military brinksmanship, and seemingly small incidents can lead to devastating consequences.
It must be accepted now that North Korea has nuclear weapons and may soon have the ability to attach them to missiles capable of striking the U.S., just as the U.S. has the ability to explode a nuke anywhere on the planet. There is no military resolution of this situation that wouldn’t amount to a monstrous atrocity with massive political, economic, and radioactive fallout as the result.
Thus, while diplomacy engaged in with enemies is always a difficult task, and in this situation more difficult than usual, it’s the only means of reducing the still-rising tensions between North Korea and the United States. The five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany have proved with the Iran agreement that they can negotiate reasonable nuclear agreements with benefits for everyone concerned.
But can Trump be convinced to engage? And is there anyone on his team capable of handling such negotiations for Washington? Certainly it’s not Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.
On the other hand, given Trump’s belligerent and ignorant speech at the United Nations, his eagerness to wreck the Iran and Paris agreements, and his bizarre behavior in general, can those other nations be persuaded to participate, assuming, of course, that Kim can be persuaded?
The stakes are high, and publicly at least, there seems to be a scarcity of willingness to get serious about that.