All the hype about how Joe Crowley lost fails to mention 5 key FACTS. Here they are:
1. Joe Crowley was largely absent from his district. Four years after he was elected, Crowley brought a home in Virginia, moved the family in, and settled in for good. His children went to school in Virginia and Crowley spent little time at his home in the district. The NY Post had a great piece on this from 2011: https://nypost.com/2011/07/08/queens-democratic-party-boss-lives-in-northern-virginia/
2. Demographics were not in Crowley’s favor. The district is 50% Hispanic and only 18% White. The district was created to protect Crowley (even in his absence). It includes the largely European immigrant neighborhood of Astoria, the heavily Latin American neighborhood of Jackson Heights, and the African-American neighborhood of Co-Op (and points in-between all 3).
3. Crowley was the mob boss of the Queens Democratic Party. As party boss, Crowley had total control over what candidates ran and where they ran. All that changed when the upset that no one expected had occurred. In 2017, Joe Crowley’s cousin, Elizabeth Crowley was running for re-election to the city council. Her Democratic opponent understood there was no way that Joe Crowley was going to allow his cousin to be defeated. Therefore, the Democrat made Crowley irrelevant by running as the nominee of four separate parties, ultimately defeating Crowley’s own cousin by 137 votes. This loss demonstrated that Crowley could indeed be challenged.
4. Ocasio-Cortez’s victory makes her vulnerable to a challenger in two years. Now that Crowley has been dethroned, all his allies are going to be engaged in a free for all (Crowley kept them in line). Their positions are not going to be any different than Ocasio-Cortez’s, yet unlike Crowley, they live within their districts and have a built-up base (something Ocasio-Cortez has two short years to accomplish, albeit with much resistance in her way).
5. The likelihood of a repeat in a Democratic primary elsewhere is unlikely. As stated above, 1 and 2 were Crowley’s weaknesses.
Three other districts that Ocasio-Cortez has openly targeted with sitting incumbents include:
1. Massachusetts 7th – The district is 34% White, 26% African-American, and 22% Hispanic. The incumbent is equally progressive as the challenger, absent the socialist branding.
2. Missouri 1st – The district is 50% African-American and 47% White. The incumbent faced a spirited primary two year ago and still received 63% of the vote. There are an additional 2 Democrats on the ballot for the primary, giving the incumbent an advantage (Doug Lamborn in Colorado proves this).
3. Florida 7th – The district is 60% White, 25% Hispanic, and 11% African-American. The incumbent, Stephanie Murphy, defeated a 12-term incumbent in 2016. Of the five seats Democrats gained in 2016, this is the only one held by an entrenched incumbent. This year, the Republicans are engaged in a three-way fight fest, which will leave them heavily underfunded going into the general election.
Voter registration shows it evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, which is why Stephanie Murphy is a good fit here. Her primary opponent would be a virtual loss, a guaranteed write off by Democrats. In fact, her opponent is so far to the left of voters here that he could not even win in the neighboring 10th (which is far more Democratic).
If you want to support winnable campaigns with progressive candidates there are many, here are a few:
- Katie Porter (CA-45) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Lauren Underwood (IL-14) — secure.actblue.com/...
- J.D. Scholten (IA-4) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Dean Phillips (MN-3) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Kara Eastman (NE-2) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Antonio Delgado (NY-19) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Linda Coleman (NC-2) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Lizzie Fletcher (TX-7) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Colin Allred (TX-32) — secure.actblue.com/...
- Randy Bryce (WI-1) — secure.actblue.com/…
Remember: Taking back control of Congress IS the GOAL. Wasting money in feel good primaries IS NOT.
If Ocasio Cortez wants to be taken seriously in Congress, then she might want to reach out to the DCCC and see how she can help Democrats take back the House, rather than endorsing challengers to sitting Democratic incumbents, races that her endorsed candidates (except for MA 7th) have no chance of winning. If not, then Ocasio Cortez should at least acknowledge that demographics and an absentee Congressman played more of a role in her win than the messaging itself (and that, is a FACT).