That caption is the title of a Monday July 16th, 2018 report by Jillian S. Ambroz
After reading this and this earlier this morning (excellent reporting on how low-down the GOP has taken this country) and then ranting into the wind about it, a reminder to look at some math done by people with years of experience backing them up did some good.
Jillian S. Ambroz's report at David Cay Johnston’s DCReport begins here:
Everyone is working the math. Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to take back the House.
Forty-three seats would give them a majority the Republicans now enjoy. The ram-legislation-through kind of majority.
And each day it is looking like Democrats will win one of the two in November.
according to The Cook Political Report :
60 Congressional seats as competitive; 56 of those seats are held by Republicans and four are held by Democrats.
Of those 60 seats, 26 are considered toss-ups at the moment.
But if we split the toss-up districts evenly down the aisle today, Democrats would pick up 19 seats.
adding to that is more positive information:
• There are currently around 26 GOP-held seats that Cook Political is tracking in the Lean-Republican territory with great potential to become toss-ups.
• another 28 Republican seats in the Likely-Republican category that could become more competitive to the Dems advantage
So it’s trending towards Dems taking more than the 23 seats needed to establish a majority
.
What’s being reported is that Cook Political changed some ratings on 15 Congressional districts, mostly in favor of Democrats.
This is the list that Jillian S. Ambroz provided (with an interactive Cook Politics map):
Ariz. District 01: Incumbent Rep. Tom O’Halleran (D) – From Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Ariz. District 09: OPEN (Former Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) – From Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
Colo. District 03: Incumbent Rep. Scott Tipton (R) – From Solid Republican to Likely Republican
Conn. District 05: OPEN (Former Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D) – From Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic
Fla. District 06: (Former Rep. Ron DeSantis (R) – From Solid Republican to Lean Republican
Fla. District 16: Incumbent Rep. Vernon Buchanan (R) – From Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Ill. District 13: Incumbent Rep. Rodney Davis (R) – From Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Maine District 02: Incumbent Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) – From Lean Republican to Toss-Up
Mont. District 01 (entire state): Incumbent Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) – From Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Mich. District 08: Incumbent Rep. Mike Bishop (R) – From Lean Republican to Toss-Up
N.Y. District 11: Incumbent Rep. Dan Donovan (R) – From Lean Republican to Likely Republican
N.Y. District 25: VACANT (Former Rep. Louise Slaughter (D) – From Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat
Penn. District 01: Incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R) – From Toss-Up to Lean Republican
Penn. District 16: Incumbent Rep. Mike Kelly (R) – From Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Va. District 07: Incumbent Rep. Dave Brat (R) – From Lean Republican to Toss-Up
Adding to that is an aggregate of 10 national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight on a continuous basis with a couple of those figures arranged by me into bullet points:
- an average of 48.3% of people support Democrats in the race for Congress as of July 13
- an average of 39.4% who favor Republicans
That’s been that case for about the last 14 months, give or take a bit
With this to consider near the end of the report:
At the lowest point, Democrats only received 42.8% support, back in May of 2017. That still trumps the highest point the Republicans have received, which was 41.3% sometime last May.
But at no point have the Republicans received more support than Democrats in this polling.
Also provided @ DCReport are links to resources:
Voters’ Resources
Represent.Us – A bipartisan anticorruption site with information on current laws, policies, national and local resources to help make a difference in political financing.
U.S. House of Representatives Financial Disclosure Database – Use this site to view the financial disclosure statements for Congressional members and candidates.
United States Senate Financial Disclosures – This site provides the financial reports for senators, former senators and candidates from January 2012 to present. Senator reports are available until six years after the senator leaves office; candidate reports are available for one year after elections.
* * *
I usually leave this sort of thing to the experts here @ Daily Kos, but throwing this together doesn’t require that kind of knowledge, and it was good to see the sort of clinical math part separated a bit from gigantic shit-storm that the GOP near always stirs up to hide what's going on whenever their corruption and political malfeasance is exposed to the light of day
Also too: I’m going take my walking list and do my best talking to whoever will listen to make the very best case that, not one out of two , but two out of two — for Dems to take both chambers of congress is what all people, this country and the world needs :)