Donald Trump is fully to blame for this shutdown predicament, but if congressional Republicans think anyone but them will be held accountable in 2018, they are as delusional as Trump.
Here's the breakdown:
•Democratic voters will blame Republicans, full stop.
•Loyal Trump voters, some 35 percent of nation, will largely blame Congress—because Trump will hang congressional lawmakers out to dry.
•Congressional Republicans currently enjoy even lower approval ratings than Trump—28 percent approval vs. 61 percent disapproval, in this week's NPR/PBS/Marist poll—and don’t have near the loyal base that Trump does.
Democrats were almost as unpopular in that same poll—28 percent approval to 57 percent disapproval—but we're talking about loyalty here. Democrats will keep most of their loyal supporters, whereas Republicans will end up dividing their loyalties between Trump and Republicans.
Already, an ABC poll has showed that Americans are poised to blame Republicans over Democrats for a shutdown by a 20-point margin—48 to 28.
It's true that congressional Republicans upped their approval ratings slightly after managing to pass a bill—taxes. They've narrowed the generic ballot average to about eight points. But that slight uptick seems to be more about them showing some scintilla of competence, rather than the popularity of the tax bill they actually passed (which was broadly unpopular).
Not keeping the government open will kill whatever competency cred they may have momentarily gained. And Trump's White House is currently preparing for that eventuality. Listen below to Trump's legislative director Marc Short lay the foundation on Friday for blaming all of Congress (not just Democrats) for failing to pass a budget deal and deliver a DACA fix (also, take his narrative with a huge grain of salt).
If you want to make sure Republicans take the shutdown fall, start now by giving $3 to elect Democrat Conor Lamb to a blood-red district in Pennsylvania.
We are frustrated, obviously, because [Mick Mulvaney’s] job is to submit a budget to Congress. Let's keep that in perspective. Mick does that in February. Congress has months to complete appropriations process. The fiscal year ends on September 30th. We're now in mid-January. It is frustrating to all of us that we're in this position. [...]
Regarding DACA, we feel that the administration has put forward our plans on this. Keep in mind, Secretary Kelly, a year ago, went to Congress and said, we need a solution on DACA. We asked Congress to fix it. [...]
We gave them plenty of heads up and warning on this. Back in the fall, we submitted our priorities to Congress, in October. We then refined those at their request to say, this is too much. We basically negotiated against ourselves and winnowed down the list for them to say, here are practical things that are necessary to get to a deal on DACA. We have put forward the plan.
Republicans are in charge of Congress, and they will own this, partly because Trump will make sure they do.