I felt a lot of frustration that Manchin provided the aye vote to create even the tiniest fig-leaf of bipartisan support for Kavanaugh’s nomination. Having said that, I’m withholding judgment as to whether it was a strike against Manchin or not.
Manchin has been in very close talks with Murkowski, Collins, and Flake. Murkowski crossed over in our direction and Manchin crossed over in their direction. This vote may have been a product of some shrewd deal making. But regardless of how Murkowski, Flake, or Collins votes, Manchin cannot be the sole Democrat voting for a successful Kavanaugh confirmation.
Even if he isn’t technically the deciding vote for confirmation, it will be completely fair to lay the blame squarely at his feet if Kavanaugh is confirmed and he votes aye. In that case, his vote may well have given a bipartisan veneer sufficient to make Flake, Collins, and/or Murkowski comfortable voting to confirm.
On top of that, his lone Democratic vote will be enough to completely undermine the Democratic case that the Republicans were in the wrong when they voted to confirm Kavanaugh.
I am ordinarily all for giving Democratic Senators in red states wide latitude in casting these votes, but Donnelly and Heitkamp are both in extremely tough (tougher than Manchin) campaigns and while they both joined Manchin in voting to confirm Gorsuch, they recognized that this is one of those votes that arise every now and then when you must vote your conscience.
I think Joe Manchin is a very smart politician. The case against confirming Kavanaugh is overwhelming. I think anyone not blinded by partisanship can see that. If Manchin calculates that appeasing conservatives in his state by capitulating on this vote, he is badly mistaken. I’d encourage everyone who can, especially West Virginian constituents, to get whatever message they can to Manchin telling him that he must vote no.