Bad news first.
Oklahoma is Oklahoma.
Although Oklahomans aren’t happy with their state government, they decided to stay the course.
kevin Stitt will undoubtedly continue “failin’” Fallin’s policies, but hell, he’s an outsider. He’s a shady Trump clone minus the charisma.
Democrats picked up a seat in the Senate (don’t cheer too much, it’s still something like 38-9, estimates, but real close to reality) but lost a seat in the house (also something like 74-27?)
Only one person I voted for won, and it was a non partisan Judge race.
With that out of the way. The headline next. Oklahoma is sending it’s first Representative to DC for the first time since 2012. In a district that hasn’t sent a Democrat to DC since the 1970’s. I had seen it as a possible flip and a few places here and there, but thought nothing of it.
Kendra Horn beat Steve Russell by 1.5 points. He previously won that seat by 20 points in 2016 and 24 in 2014. That’s a drop of 21.5%.
Obviously that district can be gerrymandered seeing as how the Democrats will have no say in how it’s drawn but…
Mixed Martial artist Markwayne Mullin won’t exactly be thrilled with trading votes with that district. After winning in 2012 by ONLY 19 points with 57% he jumped to 70% in 2014 and 70.6% in 2016. What did he do in 2018? 65%. Down 5.4 points. Nothing to be too worried about except…
Scientist Jim Bridenstine took district 1 in 2012 with 63.5% and ran unopposed in 2014 and 2016. He is replaced by Kevin Hern who brought in 59.3%. That’s a drop of 4.2%
“Low Energy” Frank Lucas is the best way to go for them to trade voters. In 2014 he took in 78.6%. In 2016 he got 78.3%. This time? “only” 73.9%. That’s down 4.4%.
Finally, good old establishment Tom Cole. For years he has been the “reasonable” voice in the Oklahoma delegation. How’s he been doing? Well… in 2014 he got 70.8%. 2016 69.64% and now? 63.1%. That’s down 6.5%!
With everybody down an average of 5 points, who wants to make their races more competitive? Lucas obviously has the biggest pad to play with. What if they actually don’t screw up the lines too much? Probably me just dreaming.
Baby steps. Due to redistricting, Horn’s time in DC might be short. But who really knows? What if in 2020 there’s a solid LIKABLE Democratic candidate for President that won’t get beat in Oklahoma as bad as Clinton or Trump (Clinton got 29%, Obama got 34 then 33. Kerry 34. Gore 38.)? What if all the races shift another 2 points? Are any other Red States seeing this? I pray that it’s the beginning of a trend and not a blip.
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