After a midterm that turned out to be a bounty for Team Blue in California, flipping 7 GOP Districts (half of their total), it is worth looking at how red those 7 districts actually are. This will in turn give us some indication of where we are most likely going to be playing defense in 2020.
In order to hold all 7 of these districts each congress critter, their staff, their field operatives and the California Democratic party itself cannot rest on their laurels. This is self evidently true as is the observation that none of them can afford to be complacent, unlike many of the GOP incumbents that were defeated in November.
Having said that, some of the California 7 are much redder than others. Shall we take a look see?
CA-10
PVI - EVEN
2012 House Result: Denham (R) 52.7%, Hernandez (D) 47.3%
2014 House Result: Denham (R) 56.4%, Eggman (D) 43.6%
2016 House Result: Denham (R) 51.7%, Eggman (D) 48.3%
2018 House Result: Denham (R) 47.7%, Harder (D) 52.3%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 38.29%, D - 40.89%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 38.66%, D - 39.70%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 39.75%, D - 37.11%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 36.41%, D - 39.09%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 36.42%, D - 38.82%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 33.78%, D - 37.30%
2008 Pres - Obama 50%, McCain 47%
2012 Pres - Obama 50.6%, Romney 47.0%
2016 Pres - Clinton 48.5%, Trump 45.5%
Harder should be fine here given that the voter reg trend is moving blue. The 3 ½ point voter reg advantage and the advantage of incumbency adds up to an eminently holdable district.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 3rd most likely to stay blue.
CA-21
PVI-D+5
2012 House Result: Valadao (R) 58.1%, Hernandez (D) 41.9%
2014 House Result: Valadao (R) 58.5, Renteria (D) 41.5%
2016 House Result: Valadao (R) 56.7%, Huerta (D) 43.3%
2018 House Result: Valadao (R) 49.6%, Cox (D) 50.4%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 34.35%, D - 45.40%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 32.65%, D - 47.31%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 30.98%, D - 47.66%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 29.00%, D - 46.37%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 28.83%, D - 46.04%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 27.13%, D - 43.27%
2008 Pres - Obama 52%, McCain 46%
2012 Pres - Obama 54.6%, Romney 43.5%
2016 Pres - Clinton 55.2%, Trump 39.7%
How ironic that the most unexpected midterm flip will turn out to be the easiest hold. Yes Cox will need to introduce himself to many of his new constituents and all that but the rather gaudy 16% voter reg gap should see him do just fine.
One caveat though. Things could get interesting if Valadao runs again…..
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 1st most likely to stay blue.
CA-25
PVI - EVEN
2012 House Result: McKeon (R) 54.8%, Rogers (D) 45.2%
2014 House Result: Knight (R) 53.3%, Strickland (R) 46.7% - Democrats lost Open Primary
2016 House Result: Knight (R) 53.1%, Caforio (D) 46.9%
2018 House Result: Knight (R) 45.6%, Hill (D) 54.4%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 40.72%, D - 35.33%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 39.42%, D - 35.41%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 37.19%, D - 37.24%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 35.09%, D - 37.78%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 34.88%, D - 37.63%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 32.38%, D - 36.70%
2008 Pres - Obama 49%, McCain 48%
2012 Pres - Obama 47.85%, Romney 49.66%
2016 Pres - Clinton 50.3%, Trump 43.6%
This district is bluing reasonably quickly. With the LA Democratic party able to pour tonnes of resources into this district Hill should hang on handily.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 2nd most likely to stay blue.
CA-39
PVI - EVEN
2012 House Result: Royce (R) 57.8%, Chen (D) 42.2%
2014 House Result: Royce (R) 68.6%, Anderson (D) 31.4%
2016 House Result: Royce (R) 57.2%, Murdock (D) 42.8%
2018 House Result: Kim(R) 48.4%, Cisneros (D) 51.6%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 40.46%, D - 32.34%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 39.23%, D - 32.34%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 38.46%, D - 32.42%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 36.26%, D - 34.39%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 36.09%, D - 34.37%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 33.39%, D - 33.92%
2008 Pres - Obama 47%, McCain 49%
2012 Pres - Obama 47.09%, Romney 50.75%
2016 Pres - Clinton 51.5%, Trump 42.9%
In the end this one turned into a bit of a blow out. Whilst Cisneros needs to keep his foot on the pedal the LA Democratic Party won’t be letting this one flip to red any time soon. Would be good to see that voter reg gap continue to increase though.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 4th most likely to stay blue.
CA-45
PVI - R+3
2012 House Result: Campbell (R) 58.5%, Kang (D) 41.5%
2014 House Result: Walters (R) 65.1%, Leavens (D) 34.9%
2016 House Result: Walters (R) 58.6%, Varasteh (D) 41.4%
2018 House Result: Walters (R) 47.9%, Porter (D) 52.1%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 44.90%, D - 28.02%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 45.11%, D - 29.76%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 43.00%, D - 28.11%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 39.88%, D - 30.49%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 39.64%, D - 30.40%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 36.39%, D - 30.57%
2008 Pres - Obama 43%, McCain 54%
2012 Pres - Obama 41.4%, Romney 54.78%
2016 Pres - Clinton 49.8%, Trump 44.4%
This district finished with a surprisingly comfortable margin for Porter in November.
The almost 6% GOP voter reg advantage does give us pause for thought however. On the other hand, given that the voter reg gap narrowed by 3% in the last 12 months alone and also that Clinton carried this one by 5% then the ingredients are there for team blue to lock this one away indefinitely.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 6th most likely to stay blue.
CA-48
PVI - R+4
2012 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 61%, Varasteh (D) 39%
2014 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 64.1%, Savary (D) 35.9%
2016 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 58.3%, Savary (D) 41.7%
2018 House Result: Rohrabacher (R) 46.4%, Rouda (D) 53.6%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 44.79%, D - 28.45%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 43.88%, D - 28.38%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 43.83%, D - 28.20%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 41.42%, D - 30.01%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 41.21%, D - 29.84%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 38.42%, D - 29.80%
2008 Pres - Obama 46%, McCain 51%
2012 Pres - Obama 43.00%, Romney 54.80%
2016 Pres - Clinton 47.9%, Trump 46.2%
This is the only one of the 7 that I have serious misgivings about. No reflection on Congressman Rouda it is just that the voter reg gap of almost 9% is somewhat daunting, in a county (Orange) where resources will be stretched in other districts (39th, 45th, 49th).
Whilst Rouda really did win very comfortably his opponent was both scandal ridden (Putin’s fav and all) and asleep at the wheel.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 7th most likely to stay blue. Still eminently holdable but it will require all shoulders to the wheel.
CA-49
PVI - R+1
2012 House Result: Issa (R) 58.2%, Tetalman (D) 41.8%
2014 House Result: Issa (R) 60.3, Peiser (D) 39.7%
2016 House Result: Issa (R) 50.3%, Applegate (D) 49.7%
2018 House Result: Harkey (R) 43.6%, Levin (D) 56.4%
Voter Reg as at 3/01/12: R - 42.77%, D - 28.68%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/12: R - 41.49%, D - 28.79%
Voter Reg as at 20/10/14: R - 40.18%, D - 28.82%
Voter Reg as at 24/10/16: R - 37.79%, D - 31.20%
Voter Reg as at 10/2/17: R - 37.71%, D - 31.00%
Voter Reg as at 22/10/18: R - 34.77%, D - 31.01%
2008 Pres - Obama 49%, McCain 48%
2012 Pres - Obama 45.66%, Romney 52.40%
2016 Pres - Clinton 50.7%, Trump 43.2%
An open district and a flawed GOP candidate saw this massively blow out in November. The 3.75% GOP voter reg gap is troubling but rapidly narrowing. If Levin can harness the enthusiasm that has been evident in the District in the last couple of cycles he should be fine.
Of the 7, I rank this one as the 5th most likely to stay blue.
It would be remiss of me not to mention the Open primary that California runs in which the top two vote getting candidates, irrespective of party, progress to the general election.
The open primary has given Democrats conniptions in California every cycle since it was introduced, and in fact in 2018 team blue was shut out in CA-08, again. However as long as incumbent congress critters don’t have significant intra party opponents in the primary then they will be just fine for the general. That is to say that the open primary is much easier to manipulate to shut out the non-incumbent party than the incumbent party given the profile and resources of incumbents.
I can’t see the open primary being a problem for newly elected Democratic incumbents in the 7 in 2020.
So absent scandal or retirements there is no reason why the California Democratic Party can’t extend the 20 year streak since they last lost a US house district to the GOP into 2020. Yes I am a bit nervous about CA-48 but all else being equal team blue should hold all 7.
Your thoughts please...