On Thursday, GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham announced that he would challenge Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards in the 2019 contest to lead Louisiana. Abraham’s only intra-party foe at the moment is wealthy businessman Eddie Rispone, though other Republicans have shown an interest in running after Sen. John Kennedy announced he would stay out of the race on Monday. All the candidates will compete in an October jungle primary, and if no one takes a majority, there would be a runoff in late November.
Abraham, who has worked as a farmer, Coast Guard pilot, medical doctor, and veterinarian, had never run for office before seeking a safely Republican House seat in northeast Louisiana in 2014, though he did appear in ads for Bobby Jindal’s successful 2007 campaign for governor. In his congressional bid, Abraham was one of many candidates from both parties who challenged freshman GOP Rep. Vance McAllister, who made national headlines after security camera footage leaked that featured McAllister passionately making out with a staffer who was not his wife.
Abraham ended up reaching the runoff by narrowly edging out fellow Republican Zach Dasher, a member of the “Duck Dynasty” family who was backed by the radical anti-tax Club for Growth (McAllister came nowhere close to winning). He then had no trouble winning this very red seat against a Democrat in the second round of voting, and he hasn’t been seriously challenged since then.
Abraham, whose seat includes Alexandria and Monroe in the northeast and extends to the outskirts of the New Orleans area, has been a pretty low-key House member since his 2014 win, and he likely begins the contest without much name-recognition outside his 5th District. Indeed, polls taken during 2018 have showed him with little support in the race for governor.
A September survey from Republican pollster Remington Research on behalf of the conservative blog The Hayride found Edwards leading Abraham 48-35 in a hypothetical general election, though that was still better than Rispone’s 52-29 deficit. Kennedy, who was still considering running for governor at the time, also released an October poll from SurveyUSA that showed Edwards leading Abraham 45-37, with the governor defeating Rispone 47-33. (For what it’s worth—which at this point is nothing—both polls found Kennedy beating Edwards.)
Recently, though, Abraham has taken some steps to get his name out. While the congressman faced no serious opposition this fall, his re-election campaign ran a minute-long biographical TV spot that aired across most of the state, an unmistakable sign that he wanted his ad to be seen far outside his district. Rispone, by contrast, has yet to run any TV spots, but if he sticks to his pledge to contribute at least $5 million to his campaign, he’ll have the resources to also increase his name recognition.
Because Louisiana’s gubernatorial election is in an odd-numbered year, Abraham will be able to keep serving in the House through the race. If Abraham wins, there would be a special election to replace him in Congress, and Team Red would be heavily favored to hold his district. If Abraham loses, he’d be able to simply run for a fourth term in 2020.