The story on the poll can be read here.
Here are a few excerpts from that story:
this:
Lamb holds a 51% to 45% lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year. Another 1% opt for a third party candidate and 3% are undecided. Lamb also has the edge using a historical midterm lower turnout model, albeit by a much smaller 49% to 47% margin. A model with higher turnout overall, similar to a presidential electorate, gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage. This marks a turnaround from last month’s Monmouth poll of the race, when Saccone held a small lead in all the models – 49% to 46% in the surge model, 48% to 44% in the high turnout model, and 50% to 45% in the low turnout model.
and this:
Lamb earns a net positive 53% favorable and 33% unfavorable rating from likely voters in PA18. Opinion is somewhat more divided on Saccone at 47% favorable and 43% unfavorable. Fully 95% of self-identified Democrats support Lamb (to 5% for Saccone), while 88% of self-identified Republicans support Saccone (to 9% for Lamb). Independents prefer Lamb by a 51% to 45% margin.
and note
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from March 8 to 11, 2018 with 503 registered voters in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District. Results in this release are based on the responses of 372 likely voters for Tuesday’s special election and have a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percent.
So, with ordinary mid-term turnout, Lamb up by 2.
But presuming a higher turnout such as what we saw in AL,Lamb+6.
The political chatter around DC seems to make it clear that internal polls of both campaigns / parties shows a likely Lamb win.
Let’s hope for good weather all day.
UPDATE — looking inside the poll, the last question asked about impact of announcement on tariffs on people’s votes. 96% said it had no impact. While 3% said it made them more likely to vote for Saccone, 1% said it made them more likely to vote for Lamb.
Meanwhile, Trump’s approval rating is as follows
strongly approve 39%
somewhat approve 10%
somewhat disapprove 8%
strongly disapprove 41%
the overall approval of 49% was down 2% from February.
Make of it what you will.