We begin today’s roundup with this excellent analysis by Jonathan Stevenson, senior fellow for U.S. defense at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, of what Army Lt. Gen. H. R. McMaster leaves behind and what incoming National Security Advisor John Bolton brings to the table:
Among specific policies, continued adherence to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — that is, the Iran nuclear deal — is perhaps the one that General McMaster’s departure most imperils. Mr. Trump’s primary substantive motivation for the current shake-up among his senior advisers is apparently to remove obstacles to scuttling the Iran deal, which he has already declined to recertify. Rex Tillerson, the recently fired secretary of state, was one of the two biggest ones; General McMaster was the other. The new C.I.A. director, Mike Pompeo, whom Mr. Trump has nominated to succeed Mr. Tillerson, firmly opposes the Iran deal.
Mr. Bolton, for his part, is the ultimate Iran hawk, having long advocated a pre-emptive strike on Iran. Mr. Mattis, though he has supported adherence to the deal, reportedly pushed for General McMaster’s ouster and considers Iran an implacable threat to regional security and stability. Tearing up the Iran deal would provide a pretext for unleashing American forces — about 10,000 of which are already deployed in Iraq and Syria — against Iranian proxies in the Middle East, including Hezbollah and Iran-backed Shia militias. [...]
More generally, a national security team led by Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Bolton is likely to face less resistance from Mr. Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — the remaining putative “adults in the room.” These two principals, alongside Mr. Tillerson and sometimes General McMaster, had reportedly blunted some of Mr. Trump’s recklessly aggressive impulses. Now outnumbered, the two will face greater pressure to acquiesce to them. Mr. Trump has self-consciously chosen Mr. Bolton as well as Mr. Pompeo on the basis not of their collegiality or bureaucratic skills — traits that the president, judging by his other appointments, clearly does not value highly — but rather their like-minded ideological tilts, penchants for contrarianism, perceived telegenicity and personal compatibility.
Here is Spencer Ackerman’s take at The Daily Beast:
H.R. McMaster went into Donald Trump’s White House an unexpected, out-of-place fit whom his security-field allies hoped would restrain the president. He exits it without an active military career and with his long-cultivated reputation for integrity tarnished by his tumultuous year working for Trump.
And McMaster turns his job over to a right-wing foreign policy expert considered all but bloodthirsty and eager to encourage Trump’s most hawkish instincts—exactly the sort of figure McMaster’s many allies in defense circles feared would rapidly emerge in the wake of McMaster’s departure.
Heather Hurlburt:
What really seems likely to take Bolton down is his style, which is legendary – and not in a good way. His colleagues from the George W. Bush administration responded to Trump’s announcement with comments like “the obvious question is whether John Bolton has the temperament and the judgment for the job” – not exactly a ringing endorsement. One former co-worker described Bolton as a “kiss up, kick down kind of guy,” and he was notorious in past administrations for conniving and sneaking around officials who disagreed with him, both traits that Trump seems likely to enjoy … until he doesn’t. This is a man who can’t refrain from telling Tucker Carlson that his analysis is “simpleminded” – while he’s a guest on Carlson’s show. Turns out it’s not true that he threw a stapler at a contractor – it was a tape dispenser. When Bolton was caught attempting to cook intelligence to suggest that Cuba had a biological weapons program, he bullied the analyst who had dared push back, calling him a “midlevel … munchkin.” How long until Trump tires of the drama – or of being eclipsed?
Former Republican Congressman and Morning Joe host John Scarborough:
Bolton’s elevation to the position of national security adviser is a fitting coda for a movement whose adherents spent decades throwing themselves on an endless array of ideological barricades while vilifying opponents whose responses to Soviet Russia or Islamic fundamentalism were deemed insufficiently harsh...Trump’s third national security advisor in 14 months has called for the preemptive bombing of both North Korea and Iran, while defending his role in the worst U.S. foreign policy disaster since Vietnam. Of America’s military misadventure in Iraq, Bolton pleads innocence on all counts while shamelessly calling Barack Obama’s 2011 decision to bring American troops home “the worst decision” made in that debacle.
Switching topics, David Remnick writes about the continued fallout from the Cambridge Analytica data theft:
The question is whether the barons of Silicon Valley can move beyond ritual statements of regret and assurance to a genuine self-accounting. In November, 2016, when Facebook was first presented with evidence that its platform had been exploited by Russian hackers to Trump’s advantage, Mark Zuckerberg, serene and arrogant, dismissed the suggestion as “pretty crazy.” As Nicholas Thompson and Fred Vogelstein write, in Wired, it took Zuckerberg at least a year to fully acknowledge Facebook’s role in the election drama and take action.
At USA Today, former Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member Suedeen Kelly urges action on the Russian attacks on Amerca’s power grid and other infrastructure:
There can no longer be any doubt: In a warning issued March 15, the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI confirmed that Russian hackers have infiltrated the U.S. electric grid and may well have the ability to shut down our power plants at will.
The Washington Post editorial board takes on Trump’s non-disclosure agreements:
IT WAS one thing for Donald Trump, the businessman, to require employees, investors, ex-wives and adult-film stars to sign nondisclosure agreements. As distasteful as those agreements may have been, he was exercising the legal rights of a private citizen. It is an entirely different — and completely unacceptable — matter for Donald Trump, the president, to think he can similarly gag White House staff.
On a final note, don’t miss this piece by Lori Alhadeff, mother of murdered Parkland student Alyssa Alhadeff, on the need for gun control:
I know in my heart that she was meant for greatness. Instead, she was one of 17 killed and more than a dozen injured in her school.
Here’s something else about my Alyssa: She was a fighter. Now, it is my job to fight in her name — to end gun violence, to elect people who will stand up to the National Rifle Association and to make our communities safer.
I know what my job is now. My job is to be Alyssa’s voice, because hers has been silenced. My job is to fight to make sure that other kids all across the country don’t have to go to school and feel unsafe. To honor Alyssa’s memory, I have created the organization Make Schools Safe with a mission of preventing school shootings. I will speak out for stronger gun laws.