The Marshall Islands and very possibly thousands of other islands would likely become “uninhabitable,” or so says a new study being called “a worst-case scenario” analysis of rising sea tides due to climate change. National Geographic highlights the study that explains that saltwater flooding would destroy water supplies and taint farming land on these islands, making human habitation a no-go.
“We hope the managers and governments take these forecasts into account to help more effectively plan restoration, mitigation, or relocation in a manner that saves dollars and lives,” says U.S. Geological Survey scientist Curt Storlazzi, the study's lead author.
[...]
“This study shows just how significant wave action is to the effective inundation of coastal locations,” says Kristina Dahl, a senior climate scientist with the Union of Concerned Scientists who has researched climate change's effects on recurrent flooding in cities. “With sea-level rise alone, the island studied here would be habitable through late century. But with wave action added in, the time frame for habitability is significantly shortened.” (See what the world would look like if all the ice melted.)
The study began as a directive of the U.S. Department of Defense.
If climate change is already this disruptive, what does the future hold? On the direction of the U.S. Department of Defense, which maintains a military base in the Marshall Islands, Storlazzi's team was tasked with modeling how wave-driven flooding would impact the atoll of Roi-Namur.
Storlazzi was given three scenarios to model: about 1.6 feet of sea-level rise by 2100, 3.3 feet of sea-level rise, and a full 6.6 feet of sea-level rise. His team then modeled Earth's climate, the behavior of wave-driven floods, and underground aquifers' responses to encroaching saltwater.
The results showed that wave-generated flooding would begin when sea levels reached 16 inches higher than they are today—which some have predicted to happen in the next few decades. This means hurricanes and typhoons and weather events aside, the waves themselves will potentially begin destroying thousands of islands around the world, for sure, before the end of this century.