www.centerforpolitics.org/…
In the wake of this week’s special election in OH CD-12, primaries in several states as well as other developments, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has shifted eight US House races in the direction of Democrats. Sabato rates Democrats as “soft favorites" to take control of the House of Representative this November.
Cook’s Political Ratings changed six house seats yesterday, including some of the same as Sabato.
www.cookpolitical.com/...
Kevin Yoder (R, KS-3) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
MI-11 Open (Trott, R) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
NJ-11 Open (Frelinghuysen, R) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
Chris Collins (R, NY-27) |
Safe Republican |
Likely Republican |
Lamb vs. Rothfus (PA-17) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
PA-7 Open (Dent, R) |
Toss-up |
Leans Democratic |
J. Herrera Beutler (R, WA-3) |
Safe Republican |
Leans Republican |
C. McMorris Rodgers (R, WA-5) |
Leans Republican |
Toss-up |
www.centerforpolitics.org/...
One prime Democratic pickup opportunity is in Michigan, where former Obama administration auto bailout official Haley Stevens (D) will face businesswoman Lena Epstein (R) in an affluent, suburban, and traditionally Republican district that Trump won by about 4.5 points (slightly worse than Mitt Romney’s 2012 showing there). If Democrats can come extremely close in a district like OH-12, in this environment they probably are at least slightly favored in a less Republican open seat like MI-11. We’re moving MI-11 from Toss-up to Leans Democratic, although Stevens needs to improve her fundraising because Epstein can self-fund to some degree. Now that Stevens has emerged from a crowded field she should be able to do that. We’re doing the same in the open NJ-11, another affluent, highly educated seat that is traditionally Republican but Trump barely won. Former federal prosecutor and Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill (D) has a major leg up on state Assemblyman Jay Webber (R) on the fundraising front, although a Monmouth University poll from late June showed the race as close.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------—
Virginians Favor Democratic Control of Congress
drive.google.com/…
A poll by Virginia Commonwealth University shows voters in Virginia want Democrats to control congress by a margin of 51% to 32%. This should be of some concern to Republicans since four Republican seats are up for grabs in the state, VA CD-10, VA CD-7, VA CD-2, and VA CD-5.
Not surprisingly, the same poll has Senator Tim Kaine winning with a 49% to 26% margin.
www.dailypress.com/...
In addition is a developing scandal concerning VA CD-2 Congressman Scott Taylor who’s office may have fraudulently collected signatures to put a third party candidate on the ballot.
www.nytimes.com/…
New York Times on VA CD-7 Congressman Dave Bart and some of those opposed to him.
In Virginia, Women Form an Insurgency to Try to Topple Republican Dave Brat